|
Updated: 4:34 AM Feb 9, 2012
Group Using Research to help Predict Disasters & Global Events
Dr. Cari Bourette, a professor at WKU, with the help of her team have predicted such events as the tsunami that occurred in Japan last year.
Posted: 3:10 PM Feb 8, 2012Reporter: Michael Gossum Email Address: michael.gossum@wbko.com |
|
Last year, Dr. Cari Bourette's team forecasted a natural disaster correctly.
So, how do they do it?
It can be a little confusing, but it's about looking at social moods and perceptions and turning all of that into data.
Dr. Bourette and students she works with can forecast social moods and perceptions to predict global events and even natural disasters.
They start by looking at news stories and articles.
"We look at them for eight mood factors, and we rate them. For instance, we might look at how much calmness is in this story, how much violence, how much uncertainty, how much optimism. Over time, we project the trends of those factors, and what are those factors likely to be next week or next month," said Bourette.
Last year, they forecasted chaotic social perceptions in Japan which led to the prediction of a natural disaster.
"It's one of those things that you don't want to be right about, because you don't want to see the devastation. It was very exciting to see the research actually work, and the way the data is compiled is very accurate," said senior Jennifer Thurmond.
"All I could think is what really? This was right during the time frame we expected it to happen too," said senior Ian Blaylock.
They even put out a YouTube video warning of the events that were to come.
At the core of the research lies the concept of instinct.
"It's a concept so simple that it goes back to the way animals move and shift out of the way when there's some kind of natural disaster coming toward them. It's that natural instinct, and that's what we bring to the table. If people could pay attention to that and get back to that natural instinct, then you can shift and prevent some of the fallout from the disaster," said Thurmond.
So, what about the end of the world in 2012?
"We tell people if that they're looking for the end of the world in 2012, they're likely to be disappointed, and they'll have plenty of things to deal with in 2013," said Bourette.
Along with natural disasters, they look at economic turmoil, instability in countries around the world. However, this new research may not last as funding resources have been exhausted.
For more info on the topic, here are links to some of the groups research and websites.
