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Posted: 1:09 PM Aug 11, 2006
Last Updated: 10:22 PM Jun 7, 2007
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shane.holinde@wbko.com
Slow Severe Weather Season = Summer Drought?? (Updated 5/21/07)
I guess this is sort of a sequel to my last post about drought years, but then again, maybe it's just a "spinoff". I say that because, in this instance, it's short-term or single-season drought I'm researching rather than long-term. If you've been keeping up with this spring's trends, you've probably noticed we're still rather dry (Bowling Green's yearly deficit is over 6" as I post this). Something else you may have observed is that we haven't had too many severe weather events this season. Yes, we've had a couple of very weak tornado touchdowns in the WBKO viewing area to date (Todd Co. in March and Taylor Co. in April), but nothing too serious.
To that end, I've discovered an interesting coorelation between the number of severe weather events and drought conditions (or lackthereof) in certain years here in South-Central KY. For example, there are years in which our area saw very few significant outbreaks of severe weather during spring, but wound up paying the price with serious drought conditions in the summer that followed. Conversely, I've discovered a similar relationship in certain years where our area experienced one or more major tornado outbreaks and/or numerous severe events and the following summer was wetter than average. The years I studied that included one or more major tornado outbreaks in our area were 1971, 1974, 1998, 2003. The years I studied that did not include any major spring outbreaks were 1988, 1999, and 2005.
Both 1971 and 1974 featured some of the strongest and deadliest twisters to ever strike our area (see previous posts). But neither summer that followed gave us any real problems with drought. The summer of 1971 was quite soggy, in fact, with 19.43" falling in Bowling Green from June 1st through August 31st (that's meteorological summer). The summer of '74 wasn't as wet, but it gave us near normal rainfall over the three month period, with just under 12". Fast-forward to 1998 (the year of Bowling Green's hailstorm and the deadly Metcalfe Co. tornado on the same day), and we find rainfall in this summer season to be rather generous, with 15.34" recorded. More recently, the spring of '03 gave us numerous tornado touchdowns in places like Crofton (Christian County), Munfordville (Hart County), and Rineyville (Hardin County). And the summer that followed? Yep, it was pretty damp too, with 16.36" total over the three month period.
So what about those other years I mentioned? Well, the summers of '88, '99, and '05 were infamously dry for long periods across South-Central KY. In 1988, only one weak tornado touched down in our area during the spring season (in Taylor Co. on April 6th). The summer that followed featured scorching hot and extremely dry weather. Rainfall from 6/1/88 to 8/31/88 totaled only 8.27", over 4" below average for that period. Even worse was 1999, in which the Bowling Green airport reported a meager 5.89" for the entire summer season. That spring only saw one twister touch down in the WBKO viewing area -- again a weak one in rural Logan County on May 5th. As for 2005, the only tornadic action in our immediate area took place in Todd County on May 19th. We actually wound up the following summer season with a little over 14" of rain (slightly above average), but numbers are sometimes midleading. We spent a good chunk of the summer of '05 on the brink of severe drought condtions, with only 9.2" of rain from 6/1/05 to 8/28/05. The remants of Hurricane Katrina bailed us out of the drought with nearly 5" of rain in two days late that August. I suppose you could say this is the only season I looked into that doesn't really foot the bill as far as the overall trend is concerned, but most of that summer was quite dry.
So, can we get away with saying an active spring severe season ALWAYS translates to a soggy summer with no drought? Hmmm...not so fast! One should never say "always" but never say "never", especially when you consider that 1974 had one month that was relatively dry (July '74: 1.82"). Remember last year? The first week of April 2006 saw two big-time tornado outbreaks in our area...the one on the 2nd with Hopkinsville taking it on the chin followed by the strikes in Barren County and nearby Gallatin, TN on the 7th. It didn't exactly rain cats and dogs all last summer, but we wound up with 11.93", close to the 30 year summer average. This year to date, however, it seems the pendulum is swinging the other direction. It'll be interesting to see how this translates to what we experience -- and what we may NOT experience -- in the summer that lies ahead.
SH
They Come in 3's (Updated 5/8/07)
Someone told me the other day that the water level in the well of his Allen County farm was as low as anyone in his family had seen it since the 1930s. I thought to myself, "Hmmm...my grass is growing like crazy...surely we can't be that dry!" Then again, I was only thinking about the short term. A closer examination of recent years reveals some interesting trends!
Rainfall in Bowling Green has been running well shy of climatological norms since the start of 2005. Our yearly average (based on 1971-2000 records) is 51.63". The last time we exceeded that mark was in 2004, and we've come nowhere close to it the last two seasons. In 2005, Bowling Green wound up with a mere 41.07" at year's end, over 10" shy of average. If Hurricane Katrina had not have graced us with her presence with generous rains in the waning days of August that year, it's likely the deficit would have been close to 15"!! Though 2006 was not as dry, we still fell a few inches short of normal there, too (47.55" total, 4.08" in the hole). As you may know, we already have some catching up to do in the precip department again this year. The 2007 deficit is over 6" as of May 8th. Will this trend continue? We shall see, but if past events are any indication, it just might.
Dry years -- and wet years -- seem to come in "threes" around here, at least within the last decade. The period 2002-2004 was quite moist, with three consecutive years of above average rainfall. Despite moderate drought conditions for a part of the summer of '02, we finished out the year with 58.12" inches of precip, making it our wettest year of the new millineum. That was followed by 53.68" in 2003, and 54.71" in 2004. Before that stretch, however, was a prolonged climatological drought (much like the one we're dealing with now) that lasted -- you guessed it -- three years, from 1999-2001. Remember the summer of '99? After wrapping up 1998 with near normal rainfall of just over 50", we couldn't buy a drop of rain around here at times in '99, with a paltry 36.95" recorded for the entire year. It didn't get much better in 2000, with 38.49" the grand total. However, the next year, 2001, seemed to point toward a change in the overall trend, with 45.73" falling that year (still over 5" shy of normal, though).
Of course, these numbers are NOT representative of our entire area. Each rainfall event brings more rain to the back yards and farms of some than others. Nonetheless, we seem to be in a "dry cycle", something that may not bode well for this summer if history repeats itself. It may just take a tropical system to get us out of "debt" later this year. Let's hope it's not another Gulf coast bully like Katrina, though.
SH
The "Other" Outbreak (Updated 4/27/07)
Thanks for checking back in!
A lot of us, whether we were around to see it or not, are familiar with the events of the "SuperOutbreak" of April 3, 1974. A lot of us are NOT familiar with an event that was almost as big, however, one that occured just three years prior. This is the one I like to call the "Other Outbreak", because it's sometimes confused with the one in '74. It's easy to see why, though, especially given the number of strong tornadoes that touched down in our area on April 27, 1971. This was not your run-of-the-mill severe weather episode: This was a DANGEROUS DAY!!
After a relatively quiet and warm afternoon on 4/27/71, powerful thunderstorms erupted over western Kentucky and southern Indiana. One crossing out of northern Hopkins County produced the evening's first twister, touching down first near Slaughters (along the Hopkins/Webster Co. line) before heading eastward through McLean County and into western Ohio County. Despite being on the ground for over 34 miles, there were no fatalities or injuries associated with this tornado. That was not to be for many other locales, however.
Bulter County took a pounding on the eve of 4/27/71. During the 7:00 hour, a strong twister (rated F3) tore through Morgantown, damaging or destroying numerous homes and trailers. This one killed one and injured two on its trek from Muhlenberg Co. into northern Warren County around Riverside. But the evening was about to go from bad to worse for areas east of I-65. Another strong tornado touched down in southern Green County, tracking right into the heart of Adair County. This one completely destroyed over 200 buildings (including homes, churches, and businesses) along its path, taking 6 lives and injuring 58 others. And the carnage didn't stop here. Another powerful twister (rated F4) tore through areas of Russell County just east of Russell Springs. This cyclone, which was as wide as a football field, created destruction similar to that experienced in Adair County, with hundreds of homes and farms destroyed or heavily damaged. Two people lost their lives in this one, with 72 others hurt.
By the end of this night, nine people in South-Central KY lost their lives, with 132 more injured.
The April '71 Outbreak may not have an official name per se, and it may have been forgotten by many in the meteorological community since it was upstaged just three spring seasons later. But it left a staggering number of people homeless, and served as a grim reminder of how wicked this time of year can be.
The First Alert Storm Team will be back out on the road in the coming Saturdays, programming Midland NOAA weather radios to help get you prepared for the remainder of the spring and summer seasons. (read "Chris' Corner" for more). With the technology we have at our disposal these days, hopefully that horrific number of casualties in the '71 event will never be repeated should we have an event the likes of it in the future.
Take care,
SH
One "Hail" of a Storm! (Updated 4/16/07)
Ask any Bowling Green resident who was here on the afternoon of April 16, 1998, and images of smashed windows and windsheilds, cars and trucks buried under feet of water, and siding ripped off buildings will probably come right to mind. The lone thunderstorm that tore across eastern Logan County all the way into Adair County during the late afternoon left a path of destruction in its wake, the kind many area residents had not experienced since April 1974 (see previous post). In a situation eeriely similar to that of '74, this storm cropped up on a day that was otherwise very warm and pleasant. Instead, like that terrible late afternoon 24 years prior, this day ended on a very chaotic note for a great many.
During the 4:00 hour of April 16th, 1998, a classic "supercell" developed over Logan County near Russellville. This cell quickly took on the characteristics of one capable of producing not only large hail (which is what many recall), but also a violent tornado. Those dangerous elements materialized as the storm tore its way through Warren County, dropping hail to softball size and dumping over 5" of rain in just an hour's time over Bowling Green. Meanwhile, just south of the city, a tornado developed, eventually tracking into Barren County, striking the Glasgow area before moving on toward Metcalfe County. Three people lost their lives in that twister. But the tornado in this case was only part and parcel of the devastation, something that's rather unusual with these storms. The hail and flooding iin Bowling Green stole the headlines, with damage of monumental proportions inflicted. Even to this day, these figures are astounding:
--More than 11,000 homes in Warren County were damaged by hail, wind, high water or all the above
--Around 10,000 cars and trucks were either damgaged or destroyed
--16 airplanes at the Bowling Green - Warren County Regional Airport were either damaged or destroyed
--Around $10 million in damage was done to the Greenwood Mall...much of it to the roof and air conditioning systems
--Over $1 million in damage was done to the Downing University Center on WKU's campus
--Roof and water damage forced Bowling Green High School to close for repairs...not to reopen until the fall
--All told, over $500 million in insured damages were blamed on this storm (2nd costilest hailstorm in U.S. history)
I must admit, it's strangely amusing to see a few dented cars (dimpled dandies, I've dubbed them) still roaming the streets of town to this day. They serve as a reminder of that monster storm almost a decade ago.
Currently, the National Weather Service office in Louisville, along with WBKO, are working to piece together a retrospective on the April '98 storm for next year (the 10-year anniversary). If you'd like to share your stories of that afternoon, please send them along to either my e-mail address above, or to weather@wbko.com.
Until next time,
SH
Black Wednesday Memoirs (Updated 4/6/07)
April 3, 1974 was an unforgettable day for any Kentuckian who survived one of the 26 twisters that touched down across the state that afternoon and evening. Much like November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination) or 9/11, many folks can recall exactly where they were and what they were doing when all you-know-what broke loose.
I could go on and on with stats and damage tallies from that day, but perhaps I should let survivors tell it like it was. Below are some accounts of Warren County residents who did just that...in the wake of a violent tornado that tore through the Alvaton, Three Forks, and Claypool communties (Courtesy: The Meeks family and Bowling Green Daily News):
...Mrs. Meeks had a call from her married daughter who lives across the (Barren) River to ask her mother if it was hailing at the Meeks farm. They said their goodbyes with her daughter saying, "You'l be getting the hail soon." The couple had no other warning.
Mrs. Meeks went outside to check the weather conditions and from the distance she saw the tornado headed their way. She said, "it sounded like a freight train coming from Oakland, then it sounded like a thousand." Her husband yelled at her and their daughter (Clara Wilma) to get into the truck and they would "try to get away."
As the tornado came through, the men, Mr. Meeks and an elderly boarder...were caught in the house where they threw themselves on a bed, and where Mrs. Meeks, with her daughter in her lap, had backed into the barn which was destroyed immediately. It was all over in seconds.
The hay barn where the truck had been and the dairy barn which housed 45 cows were flattened. One cow and two calves were killed...
Poles were down with wires in the yard, trees with tin roofing hanging in their branches were uprooted and tossed into a sinkhole where the pump house had lost a roof. Farm machinery was upturned or blown to neighboring farms. Mr. Meeks said, "Luckily, my two tractors were in my father's barn and are okay."
The tornado moved over the rolling countryside causing further destruction. The Meeks, alive, found themselves together again in the yard behind the house viewing the devestation of their place...
Msr. Rollin Massey, Oakland, was away at work when the tornado struck her home. Her husband was there when their house was destroyed. He was blown from his truck over into a field and survived, only to suffer a dislocated collarbone. She said, "I first heard about my house when a man who lives four miles from us called me at work to say that he had found a picture, my family picture that sat on the mantle in the living room."
Glen Richmond, Alvaton, said he, his wife and three children were blown, each in a different direction, from their home. His wife and children were hospitalized. "I saw the feed barn up in the air, " he stated, "and I felt the floor (I was standing on) come up and I felt the planks blowing around me." Richmond also told about a family who lived in a trailer closeby. For protection they hid between mattresses on the bed. And during the tornado, the roof of the trailer blew off and he saw a mattress with two people clinging to it flying through the air.
Just a footnote: That tornado was blamed for two deaths in Alvaton.
SH
StormFest Recap (Updated 3/13/07)
Sometime late last summer, I conjured up a quirky idea for a new event. An event that evolved around weather, of course, but something that hadn't been done before in this area. Storm spotter workshops are always worthwhile and informative, but I wondered if we could somehow combine those with presentations on how first responders in the medical field, law enforcement, and emergency management react to severe weather. I also wanted an event that was "family-oriented", with interactive games and demonstrations for the young 'uns.
Well, I'm proud to say that event came to fruition this past weekend, the first of its kind in South-Central KY. The inaugural "StormFest" was a success, and a BIG THANKS goes out to the over 200 of you that made the trip to Bowling Green High School Saturday morning! I got to shake hands with folks who made the pilgramage from cities like Auburn, Lewisburg, Munfordville and Edmonton--folks who traveled for almost an hour to get here in some cases.
We had some wonderful and informative presenters on hand, including Ben Schott from Louisville's National Weather Service office, Brian Lowry from Warren County Emergency Management, and Officer Jerry Corbitt from BGPD. A big tip of the hat goes out to these gentlemen. "Thank yous" also go out to the local chapter of the American Red Cross, the Medical Center and Bowling Green Air Evac team (the chopper landing was a cool sight!), and the CERT unit (Certified Emergency Response Team) for their participation in the event.
Finally, I'd like to recognize the efforts and cooperation of my co-workers here at WBKO. Kudos to the promotion and creative services department, and of course, to my fellow First Alert Storm Team members (Chris, Brandon, Matt and our intern, Brian). Without their help, this event would not have been possible.
Below are some pictures from StormFest. Again, for those of you that came out, THANK YOU! And for those of you who didn't...well, you missed out, but I think it's safe to say there's always next year!!
Lots of folks checked out the information booths, including one from the local Red Cross Chapter seen here
Now that's a spread fit for a king (or even Chris Allen--ha)! Thanks for the food Houchens!
The climax of the event: The weather balloon launch! That's Ben Schott of the National Weather Service doing the honors...
Ladies in gentlemen: I present to you...Broadway The Clown!!
The Big Snow of 1960 (From 3/8/07)
The winter of 1959-60 was truly one for the ages in South-Central Kentucky. It was made that way by frequent snows that kept residents of the Commonwealth digging out on numerous occasions. Snows of 6"+ occured in Bowling Green in January and again in February (heck, we haven't even seen one storm drop that much snow here in over a decade!). But did you know Bowling Green's biggest snow of all-time actually happened in March? It's true! The first two weeks of March 1960 were pretty unbelievable for this area's standards, and those who are still around to recall probably do so quite vividly!
The latter half of February 1960 was mighty chilly for Bowling Green. Records indicate high temperatures no milder than middle 40s during the last twenty days of the month, with 11" of snowfall. The cold spilled over into March, setting the stage for a couple of blockbuster winter storms to impact the region. The first of which impacted KY on Wednesday, Mar. 2nd, dumping a generous 3-6" of snow areawide. This was followed by a frightfully frigid air mass by early march standards, with sub zero lows recorded over most of KY on the mornings of March 5th and 6th. The mercury in Bonnieville plummeted to -14 on the morning of the 6th, a March record for the entire state that still stands! And there would be NO big warmups the following week.
On the following Tuesday (March 8th), another winter storm tracking into the Tennessee Valley had Bowling Green in its sights. Locals who recall what happened this week say the weather forecasters were literally all over the map with this one. Some thought it would be warm enough for mostly rain. Others downplayed it thinking just flurries would be the result. Neither of those scenarios came to pass, however, and South-Central KY residents were about to witness a multitude of flakes not seen from one storm in over 40 years.
Heavy, wet snow began to fall in Bowling Green on the eve of the 8th, lasting through the morning hours of the 9th before tapering off. When all was said and done, nearly TWO FEET of snow fell on the city (a single-storm and 24 hour record)! Other surrounding spots, including Glasgow, Mammoth Cave, Russellville, Scottsville, Gamaliel, and Summer Shade also racked up record snows, to the tune of 12-18". The one saving grace was that temperatures climbed above freezing Wednesday, resulting in some melting/compacting of the snow on the ground. Still, it was a nightmare for anyone who had to venture out, and road crews had a difficult time to say the least. With all areas under a state of emergency, only National Guard and emergency vehicles were permitted on travel. All schools, including Western KY University, cancelled classes for several days in the storm's wake. Many local businesses were also shut down. Numerous instances of damage to carports and roofs were reported, as the weight of the heavy, gloppy snow took its toll. And to think this happened in March!
Almost as amazing as the storm itself (at least to this weatherman) was how long the snow pack persisted after March 9th. The last of the snows finally melted on the 20th (that's barring any snow piles that may have been around awhile longer), with temperatures warming into the 40s on the 22nd, the 50s on the 23rd, and (haleluiah) a balmy 73 degrees on the 27th**. I'm guessing spring was anxiously anticipated by area residents at the end of this brutal, stormy winter!
Allright you morbid severe weather weenies, get ready :) We're talking tornado history for March next time!
SH
**Data courtesy of the KY Climate Center
Shane's Shenanigans (of Late Winter)!
Welcome in!
At long last, we can see the light at the end of winter's tunnel. In some years, that light presents itself early, when spells of cold weather are short and not a flake of snow falls after early February. But if you've lived in these parts for awhile, you know good and well it doesn't always work that way. Sometimes Mother Nature pulls some late-season shenanigans on us, with frigid temperatures and significant snow arriving at times when thoughts turn to tulips and Easter eggs. Here are some examples:
February 21st and 22nd, 1963: In a season synonymous with bitter cold, another arctic blast hit the area on the heels of the record-setting readings that chilled Kentucky in January. This one came with 1-2" of snow on the 21st, followed by record lows at or below zero throughout South-Central KY. Lows of -7 were recorded in Greenville and Beaver Dam, with -6 in Campbellsville. Bowling Green dropped to the goosegg (zero), a record low that still stands for February 22nd.
March 1, 1980: The winter of 1979-80 was similar to the season we're in now, where "real" winter held off until the very end of January and early February. Temperatures moderated across South-Central KY in late February of 80, which may have led folks to believe it was "tiptoe through the tulips" time again. But winter stormed back for one last hurrah on March 1st. This was a snowy Saturday in which the entire Commonwealth experienced significant amounts of the white stuff, to the tune of 3-9" (5" fell in Bowling Green). Very cold air in the teens and low 20s produced a fluffy snow, the product of some high liquid-to-snow ratios in this event. Covington, KY picked up 8" of snow from just .39" total precip. The general rule for liquid-to-snow is 10 inches of snow for every one inch of rain. That means Covington's liquid-to-snow ratio was just over 20 to 1 in this case. Bitter cold temperatures followed this snowstorm, with lows in the -5 to +5 degree range areawide on March 3rd.
February 25, 1993 The winter storm that struck the Commonwealth on this date will forever be known to me as "The Camp Loucon Storm". I was a senior in high school on a class retreat at Camp Loucon in Grayson County when heavy snow broke out on the morning of the 25th. The snow rapidly accumulated several inches before changing to sleet and ending as light drizzle. For much of southern Kentucky, that was the general order of events with this storm. In Bowling Green, a quick 3" of snow was followed by some sleet and then rain, as temperatures warmed above freezing. To the north of the Western KY Parkway, however, the precip stayed all snow, with over 6" of snow accumulating in portions of Hopkins, Muhlenberg, and Ohio Counties. Hardinsburg in Breckinridge County measured 8" when all was said and done.
There are other notable late-season events that took place deep into March and even April in our part of the world. Some of these came as huge surprises, and we'll cover them in later posts. Next week, I'll focus on the Big Snow of 1960.
Take care,
Shane
Nifty Lil' Nuggets!
Thanks for dropping in!
I thought I'd take a journey "through the years" (can't you hear Kenny Rogers crooning that tune now!), and touch base with some past wintry episodes that impacted the eastern United States, and in some cases South-Central KY, in a big way:
February 15th & 16th, 1969: A major winter storm cutting through the deep South dumped heavy snow over the entire WBKO (then WLTV) viewing area (we were still broadcasting on Hadley Hill at the time). Snow began on a Saturday morning and did not quit until midday Sunday. When all was said and done, snow totals of 6"+ were common across the southern half of the Commonwealth, including 7" in Bowling Green, Greenville, and Campbellsville, and 6.5" in Scottsville and Rough River Lake. The same system also clobbered Atlanta with heavy glazing, the result of freezing rain that lasted for hours.
February 18-19, 1979: I mentioned February 1979 on the last post as the snowiest in history for Bowling Green (20" total). One-fourth of that total occured on President's Day weekend, in which a storm system tracked from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the Atlantic coast. This spread a wide swath of snow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. The system's strength was underestimated by computer models, thus making it a surprise for many. Dover, DE recorded over 2 feet of snow, with Baltimore and D.C. receiving around 20". A general 3-6" fell across South-Central KY.
Incidentally, the Daytona 500 was being held on this weekend down in Florida. 1979 marked the first time the race was televised live (Richard Petty won after Cale Yarborough and Donnie Allison crashed on the last lap). To this day, the heavy snow and blizzard conditions over the eastern U.S. are credited for keeping many folks indoors and glued to TV sets that Sunday. By the way, WE will have the Daytona 500 live on WBKO FOX this Sunday (shameless plug, I know!).
February 16, 1987: Though it was not as paralyzing as the "Great Ice Storm of 1951", a severe ice event crippled much of Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina on this day. Across South-Central KY, ice accumulations of .25" to .75" were common (some snow mixed in). Over 16,000 people in our area were without power for 3 days. This storm dumped a whopping 5" of sleet in Raleigh, NC, and up to 8" of sleet in some rural areas of the Tar Heel State.
February 15th-18th, 2003: This was a whopper of a storm that JUST MISSED Bowling Green, but blitzed a good chunk of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast with record snow and ice amounts. Boston saw its biggest snowfall ever from this storm (27.5" to be exact). Here in Kentucky, this was mainly an ice storm, with Lexington picking up over 1" of freezing rain, and Louisville and Owensboro receiving 2-4" of sleet. Grayson County declared a state of emergency due to heavy icing coating the streets and weighing down power lines. To the south, flooding and severe weather occured in the Tennessee Valley into the Gulf states.
Allright, that's all the "gold nuggets" we can mine for this blog entry. I'll go panning for more another time!
SH
When February Made Us Shiver
...But February Made Me Shiver
with Every Paper I'd Deliver
Bad News on the Doorstep
I Couldn't Take One More Step...(from "American Pie", by Don McLean)
Yes, February has made us shiver. Heck, it's doing it right now! The second month of the year can NEVER be underestimated for its potential in dishing out arctic cold and heavy snows in Kentucky. last year, Bowling Green experienced its snowiest February since 1986, when over 8" of the white stuff fell. Speaking of 1986, two major snow systems impacted the region within a 5 day span. One of those clocked the area with 4-6" on Feb. 10th, only to be followed by another storm of similar strength on Valentine's Day. By the way, in case you're wondering, the snowiest February of them all (at least for this area) happened in 1979, with a grand total of 20" in Bowling Green.
In terms of brutally cold air, however, one has to go back--WAAAAY back--to the late 19th century. This particular cold outbreak is one that some have heard of from previous generations, who told tales of rivers frozen solid, sleigh-riding in the deep South, and high coal prices putting a pinch on those trying to keep homes heated. The year was 1899, and to date, the second week of February that year stands as one of the coldest ever for much of the continental U.S., including the Blue Grass state.
The brunt of the wicked cold wave of February 1899 took shape when a large dome of arctic high pressure advanced southward from Siberia into Canada and the U.S. CLICK HERE to see the maps that show the initial progression of the bitter chill into the lower 48. Note that these surface weather maps were drawn up at 8am and again at 8pm on 2/11/1899. They show the large high pressure area moving from north of Montana into South Dakota during the day. Also, the 0 degree line stretches from Maine to South Texas, then back northwestward up the Continental Divide in the Rockies.
There was no stoppin' this air mass! The next day's weather maps, seen by clicking here, reveal the evolution of this dangerously cold air mass, which by now is spreading into the Ohio Valley. Records show that in Bowling Green on 2/12/1899, the high temperature was a frigid 11 degrees, with a low of -9. This would be the first of 3 straight sub-zero nights (the city had already experienced lows of 0 or below four other times that winter season)! For our region, the worst was yet to come...
On Feb. 13th, the arctic high nosed eastward while at the same time, a strong storm riding up the eastern seaboard was blitzing some big cities like Washington, Philadelphia, and New York with feet of snow and blizzard conditions. CLICK HERE for a look at this day's surface maps. By the way, Bowling Green's low temperature on 2/13/1899 was a bone-chilling -17!!
By Valentine's Day 1899, the cold over the Ohio Valley had abated (maybe Cupid warmed things up a tad), at least to the point where high temperatures began to climb to around 40 degrees in South-Central KY. But the far-reaching extent of this air mass, along with its rather long duration, caused ice chunks to form on the Mississippi River in New Orleans, sub-zero lows as far south as Tallahassee, FL (-2 on Feb 13), and and sub-freezing temps as far south as Miami (29 degrees on Feb. 14th). Many folks over the East were lucky in this instance that a fair amount of snow was on the ground, because it acted as good insolation from the extreme cold. In Chicago, the absence of snow cover resulted the freeze penetrating the ground by about 5 feet! The result was a great amount of damage to water, gas, and service lines. Just goes to show a little snow doesn't hurt sometimes!
Just as I pondered last week with the "Ice Storm of '51" post, the same thought crosses my mind now: How would we handle a situation like this today?
SH
Great Ice Storm of 1951
Welcome to February! It's time now for my third and final installment in our "great" series (where's Tony the Tiger when you need him?). This episode may just be the greatest of them all. The Blizzard of 1978, which we mentioned last week, was a crippling event. So, too, was the blockbuster snow of March 1960. As for ice storms, you may recall the one that happened in February 1994 just a few days prior to Valentine's Day. That one was quite damaging, but it still doesn't hold a candle to what took place in South-Central KY from January 31st through the opening days of February.
The "Great Ice Storm of 1951" is regarded by many who remember it as the worst winter storm in Kentucky's history. This was a storm that had it all: Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, and amounts of all precip types were very substantial.
The stage was set for this storm in late January when cold, arctic air filtered into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Meanwhile, low pressure in the Gulf threw large amounts of moisture up and over this cold air mass. Precip broke out in Bowling Green on the morning of January 31st, initially taking the form of snow before mixing with sleet. About 4" of snow and sleet accumulated here prior to the precip switching from frozen to liquid in form during the afternoon hours, as temperatures aloft warmed considerably. However, at the surface, readings were in the upper 20s. As a result, the rain freezed on contact, producing very large ice accumulations across Kentucky and the northern parts of Tennessee.
By the morning of Feb. 1st, Bowling Green was paralyzed. Bitter cold air overtook the area another time, changing the rain back to heavy snow. When all was said and done, nearly 2" of ice and 8" of snow blanketed Bowling Green. By this point, travel was impossible, and communication was hard to come by with power and telephone lines snapping left and right. Thousands of consumers remained without electricity for weeks after the storm. What's worse, road and utility crews had to endure some of the coldest weather South-Central KY had ever experienced following the storm. Temperatures tumbled to a record cold -20 in Bowling Green on the morning of Feb. 2nd! And it wasn't just area that had to endure the wrath of these conditions: The snow and ice affected virtually everyone from Texas into New England. The storm was blamed for 25 deaths, over 500 injuries (many of those from slips and falls), and over $100 million in damage. What a storm!
One has to wonder how we would handle a situation like this in these more technologically-advanced times? We're in a day and age where computers run everything, and a storm the magnitude of 1951 would make really throw a monkey wrench in the everyday routines. Just a little food for thought!
For more info on the "Great Ice Storm", click here.
SH
Great Ohio Valley Blizzard of 1978 (from 1/25/07)
Okay, so we've had part one of our "great" series. Now it's on to part two, and I know for some of you who may remember this event, it's hard to believe almost 30 years have elapsed since. Of course, I'm referring to the very cold, VERY snowy January 1978.
Lots of folks remember the blizzard conditions that blitzed much of Kentucky during the last week of that month. Though I personally don't recall it, this is probably the event that made me a snow lover (and a weather nut) at such an early age. I was not even three years old on January 26, 1978, but apparently I could sense an unusual event was taking place. I'm told to this day by my parents the electricity was out in our west Daviess County neighborhood for many hours during that storm, thanks largely to the strong winds (gusts over 50mph) that toppled over ice-covered power lines. My mom was trying hard to keep me in bed, wrapped beneath a bevvy of blankets, but I couldn't help myself: I kept running from window to window just to see the wind whip snow drifts many feet high all around our house. To this day, I still sometimes glance outdoors--going from window to window in my own home now--waiting for that first flake to fall when snow is anticipated. As they say, some things never change!
But back to January 1978, it was not just one event but several that made this month--and really that entire winter--so remarkable. After a rather balmy start to that month that even saw high temperatures reach the lower 60s in Bowling Green, an arctic blast entered the area January 8th, with temperatures tumbling to near 0. This initial blast was accompanied by some light snow...enough to get many students out of school. In fact, some schools were only open for a day or two after the Christmas break, only to close and--in many cases--stay closed for the rest of the month!!! That's because of the onslaught of one winter storm after the next. These systems didn't just bring a dusting or 1-3" snows....oh no. These were blockbuster snowstorms! One hit January 12th with 4" for Bowling Green, but just a few days later on the 17th, a much stronger system advancing from the southern Plains dealt a widespread swath of some of the heaviest snows this region had seen in years. A general 5-10" of snow fell across South-Central KY, with amounts as high as 15" along the Ohio River between Owensboro and Louisville, as well as 12"+ amounts to the west near Paducah. For a closer look at archived snow totals from this event, click here. This storm prompted a state of emergency for most counties in Kentucky, with the National Guard being called out to assist. But the parade of snowstorms didn't stop with this one...
Another storm dumped over 6" on Bowling Green on the 19h and 20th. On the morning of the 20th, 13" of snow was on the ground here...the most since March 1960. When you click here, you'll notice the heavier snow totals were actually farther south with this storm, stretching into the Nashville area. The four days that followed this snowstorm were quiet but cold. However, the 24th and 25th brought some warmer temperatures to the area. But another big storm--make that TWO storms--waited in the wings.
On the 25th, weather maps showed one area of low pressure to the south over Mississippi, while at the same time, another low was tracking across the northern Midwest from out of North Dakota. The low in Mississippi tracked northnortheast....teaming up with the northern low over Ohio. When the two lows became intertwined, a storm of unbelievable magnitude resulted. Pressures in Ohio dropped to readings never before measured from a storm system other than a hurricane in the northern hemisphere. As the low deepened, rain quickly changed to snow across central and western KY, accumulating up to 6" in some areas. Here's the map from Jan 25, 1978. On the morning of the 26th, South-Central KY residents and folks all across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions awoke to temperatures at or below zero, howling winds, and dangerously cold wind chills (-50 or worse in some cases). Click here to see the weather map from the morning of Jan. 26th (the lines represent isobars--lines of equal pressure that when packed tightly together on a weather map denote very strong winds. Once again, a state of emergency was declared for most of Kentucky, with travel--much less even getting outside--practically impossible! It was far worse, however, for residents of Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, where dozens died of hypothermia after becoming stranded on roadways or interstates. Livestock losses were also great throughout the region due to the prolonged cold. Click here for a map of snow cover in our region after the blizzard on January 28, 1978. I should note that at one point during this month, La Grange, KY--just NE of Louisville--had a state-record 30" of snow on the ground!! (Source: KY Climate Center).
Wow, what a month! But it didn't stop with the end of January. Several more shots of cold air and snow kept marching through the Blue Grass during February into early March. Snow piles lay in the middle of shopping centers and along the sides of highways well into March in many areas, and even into April in Indiana and Ohio.
It's also worth noting that the winter of '77-'78 was NOT our snowiest in Bowling Green, nor was it even the coldest overall. In fact, we never even saw the temperature dip below zero here that entire season. But it was the repeated shots of cold air--and snow--that made the season memorable.
I'll have the third and final installment of our "great storms" series next week. I'll give you a hint about this last one: It happened over a half-century ago and was more paralyzing for Bowling Green than the '78 blizzard.
Thanks for stopping by!
SH
Great Flood of 1937
Hi and thanks for checking back in! Before I get into the meat and potatoes of this post, I would just like to say "thanks" to the many of you have e-mailed me over the last few days to say "congrats" on my earning the NWA seal of approval. I appreciate the well wishes, as well as your support and trust. Believe me, it means a lot!
Did you notice the word "great" in the title? That will be the theme of not only this blog post, but the next two that follow. These are events that will LONG live in the lore of the Blue Grass for their impacts on lives and property. The first "great" event I'll cover is one that a few of you may still recall, and even if you don't, chances are you've heard stories about it passed down from your parents, grandparents, or even great-grandparents. The "Great Flood of '37" was indeed an event of historic proportions...one that simply hasn't been matched since (though March '97 came close--more on that with a later post).
One might have thought the character Noah from bliblical days had paid a visit to Kentucky during January 1937. Rainfall amounts across the Commonwealth were staggering that month, and it wasn't just one or two big rain events that caused problems (a la '97 or last September). These rains came in rapid succession, and when they came, they often came down hard and heavy. Check out these totals from selected days in January '37 for Bowling Green:
Jan. 10th: 1.77"
Jan. 15th: 1.22"
Jan. 18th: 3.75"
Jan. 21st: 2.50"
Jan. 22nd: 2.60"
Jan. 23rd: 2.30"
See what I mean by "staggering"?! Notice that over 7" of rain poured down on Bowling Green from the 21st through the 23rd, with a total of 11.15" from the 18th through the 23rd. That's entirely too much rain in too short of time, and similar rainfall amounts occured over the entire Ohio Valley. Of course, all that water had to go somewhere, and that was to the rivers. In some cases, those rivers not only rised completely out of their banks, they swallowed some towns whole! The result was devestating. Look at these crests along the Green River in South-Central KY (a * indicates a record crest):
Munfordville: 50.4'
Brownsville: 44.9'
Woodbury: 58.9'*
Rochester: 41.6'*
In many cases, the high waters either flooded these river towns almost completely...making them only reachable by boat.
The Ohio River flooding in cities such as Cincinnati, Louisville, Owensboro, and Evansville was catastrophic. At one point, about one-third of Kenton and Campbell Counties in northern KY were completely under water. For pictures of the flooding in Cincinnati and Covington, CLICK HERE.
By the time the waters receded in early February, thousands of Ohio Valley natives had lost their lives and over $20 million dollars (1937 dollars) in damage was done.
There's a really neat publication available for those of you who may have ties to Louisville or know someone there who was affected by the massive flooding. Written by Rick Bell, it's entitled, "The Great Flood of 1937: Rising Waters, Lifting Spirits". It's $25 for the softback version. To find out more, CLICK HERE.
That's one "great" event down, two more to go. We'll continue with part two of our "great" series with a memorable 1970's blizzard next week.
Until then, take care!
SH
January Arctic "Smackdowns"!
Allright, so we had a December "smackdown" edition. Now it's time to take a look at a few of the most infamous arctic outbreaks that had Kentucky residents firmly in the freeze box once upon a time.
January 1982:If you're an old school NFL fan, you might be aware of the coldest game in pro football history between the Packers and Cowboys. This January 1967 playoff matchoff was at Green Bay's Lambeau Field, where the air temperature at kickoff time was a brutally cold -15!! (By the way, the Packers--well more accustomed to the chilly weather than the Cowboys--won that game and went on to win the very first Super Bowl). But do you know where and when the SECOND coldest game in NFL history was staged? (Insert "Jeopardy" think music here...) Give up? It happened on January 10, 1982, right upstate and across the Ohio River in Cincinnati. The Bengals took on the San Diego Chargers for the right to play in Super Bowl XVI. This was a BITTERLY COLD afternoon, with a kickoff temperature of -9. But the wind chill was incredibly frigid: -59 at kickoff time!! The folks who left the game with numb extremities will never forget that afternoon. Several Bengals players actually wore short-sleeve jerseys in an attempt to intimadate the rival Chargers' players! That strategy may have worked, as the Bengals easily won the game 27-7.
Some South-Central Kentuckians may also remember that '82 arctic chill. It came in two parts. The first "smackdown" arrived on the weekend of the 9th/10th, when overnight lows dipped into the -5 to -10 range (amazingly, that came with no snow on the ground). The air mass moderated somewhat in the days that followed, though a 3-5" snowfall occured across the area on the 12th and 13th. But the snow cover aided in sending temperatures even lower with the next cold shot that followed. On January 17, 1982, Bowling Green recorded a high temperature of just 8 degees (the lowest high temp ever for that date), and a morning low of -15 (a record low for the date).
January 1985Many area residents recall the persistent cold that lingered for much of this month. The chill settled in the day after New Years, with Bowling's Green's afternoon highs only climbing above 40 degrees on a couple of occasions in January after the 1st. In this period came a MAJOR arctic outbreak that emcompassed much of the eastern 2/3rds of the United States shortly after mid-month.
I remember January 20th, 1985 very well. It was a Sunday, and it's one of the few times I can remember school being called off for the next day NOT so much because of snow (though we did pick up some that night), but because it was so dog-gone COLD!! The very next day was the second inaugaration of President Ronald Reagan, which I remember watching because my mom told me it was too cold to go sledding! I didn;t like her decision at the time, but looking back at the numbers from that day, I must say mom knew best! January 20, 1985 stands as one of the coldest days in Bowling Green's recorded history, with an afternoon high of a mere 3 degrees and an overnight low of -12. Speaking of Reagan's inauguration, it was the coldest day ever for Washington D.C. for a inaugural ceremonies...so cold, in fact, the ceremonies were moved indoors.
January 1963:This one may be the granddaddy of all arctic "smackdowns". The period from January 23rd through the 29th that year was one that might have convinced area residents they were living in Siberia rather than in the Blue Grass. One big story with this one was the HUGE temperature plunge that happened at the onset. On January 23rd, the morning high in Bowling Green hit 45 degrees. But the mercury tumbled downward when an arctic cold front plowed through, and temperatures dropped all the way to -21 that night. That's a drop of 66 degrees in 24 hours!! Just check out these low temperatures from the morning of January 24, 1963. The numbers speak for themselves:
Campbellsville (Taylor Co): -21
Falls of Rough (Grayson Co): -25
Elizabethtown (Hardin Co): -20
Scottsville (Allen Co): -20
Summer Shade (Metcalfe Co): -28
Bonnieville (Hart Co): -34
I should point out that -34 in Bonnieville stood as Kentucky's all-time record low until January 19, 1994, when Shelbyville broke the record with -37 (Source: Kentucky Climate Center). That is incredibly frigid for the Commonwealth!
Perhaps reading of these "smackdowns" will help you prepare for the return of Old Man Winter in the coming days. In case you're wondering, our last sub-zero low in Bowling Green happened in January 2003, and the last time we had a temperature double digits below zero was on January 19, 1994 (same morning in which Shelbyville set the state's record cold temp). Bowling Green's low that morning, a bitter cold -11. Thankfully, cold shots the caliper of those mentioned above are rare, but they CAN happen again!
Until next time,
Shane
It Ain't Over Til It's Over!(From 1/2/07)
Hello and welcome to 2007!
Seems the new year is starting similar to the way the old one ended weatherwise: MILD, MILD, MILD!!! There's no doubt fans of "real" winter weather here in the Blue Grass state are hanging their heads these days. It may even have you wondering, "Where the heck is winter?" Of course, if you've been paying attention to the headlines, you're well aware that, at least so far this season, winter's been m.i.a. (missing in action) over the eastern United States, but still alive and kicking out west (where Denver, CO received its third highest December snowfall total ever). True arctic air still remains locked away in the arctic for the time being. Needless to say, times have been tough for snow lovers in this part of the world.
But, to paraphrase the old cartoon character "Quickdraw McGraw", ho-o-o-o-o-ld on there, you winter weather buffs! There's still plenty of time for a late "rally". You know, much like the "Music City Miracle" if you pull for the Tennessee Titans (circa January 2000), or maybe the "Mardi Gras Miracle"...that improbable second half comeback the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team made against LSU back in '94. A quick glance of the calendar is all that's needed to remind us that, a) It's still winter until late March, and b) To quote baseball legend Yogi Berra, "It ain't over till it's over!" That "Yogi-ism" stuck out in my mind when I looked back at a couple of previous South-Central Kentucky winters that started very mild but ended very memorable.
The winter of 1947-48 began balmy for Bowling Green. So balmy, that archived records reveal no measurable snow was reported through December into the first two weeks of January (sound familiar??). Case in point: Bowling Green's high temperature on New Year's Day 1948 was 66 degrees. However, the pattern took a drastic turn in the middle of January that season. Arctic cold took over by Jan. 14th, and that opened the door for system after system to produce significant snows for Kentucky. One storm dumped 6" on Bowling Green Jan. 16th, which was followed by bitter cold temps...dropping to -11 on the morning of the 18th. Ice floes were even reported on the Green and Barren Rivers due to the intense cold. The chill went nowhere the rest of the month, setting the stage for more big snows, including 4.3" on Jan.22nd, 5.5" on Jan. 24th, and 4" on Jan. 26th/27th. By the time January 1948 was over, a total of over 22" of snow accumulated in Bowling Green. Another 3.7" fell in February for a final tally of 26" for the season! No one would have thought that possible in the first week of January that year.
Another prime example that gives more creedance to the legenadary Yogi Berra's belief is the winter of 1965-66. This one began in the same vein as 1947-48, with plenty of mild air and a noted absence of the white stuff. In fact, no snow fell at all through December '65, and aside from just a couple of instances of light snow, early January '66 gave winter weather fans little to cheer about. Then along came January 22nd, when a blockbuster storm dumped 6-8" of snow on South-Central Kentucky. For the two weeks that followed, some brutally cold air was experienced in our area. Widespread record lows were reached on the morning of the 30th, with an extremely frigid -17 registered in Summer Shade (southern Metcalfe County). Another winter storm produced a mixed bag of precip in the area on February 1st, with the cold air not lifting until the following week. In many parts of South-Central Kentucky, at least 1" lay on the ground from Jan. 22nd through Feb. 6th, 1966. Though not as snowy as late January 1948, this was still quite a reality check for residents of our area who had enjoyed many days of 50 and 60 degree weather in the first few weeks of winter.
So, does history repeat itself? It's interesting to note that the winter of 1965-66 was an "El Nino" winter, much like this season. But Mister Berra has a quotable quote for everything, it seems. "The future ain't what it used to be," he once said. When you pause and ponder that one for a moment, you realize he's exactly right. But in the LITERAL sense, is it that saying or the aforementioned "It ain't over till it's over" that applies to the rest of the winter of 2006-07? We'll soon find out.
Take care,
Shane
The Top Ten Local Weather Events of 2006 (from 12/26/06)
Hi there! I hope you had an enjoyable Christmas!
We're counting down the hours left in 2006, and there aren't that many! That means it's time to look back at some of South-Central Kentucky's most significant and memorable weather events of the past year. As I comprised this list (with the help and opinions of fellow First Alert Storm Team members Chris, Brandon, and Matt), I realized this year has been quite active indeed! Make that, active from the VERY start, even, with our unanimously picked #1 event serving as proof.
But first, a few weather "happenings" in the year 2006 that did not make our top 10, though they at least deserve some honorable mention:
--No 100 degree temps again for Bowling Green this summer (last 100 degree high: Sept. 5, 1999)
--6th Warmest January of All-time (this might have made our list if it had been warmer)
--Flooding on January 23rd--Many rural roads in the eastern part of the WBKO viewing area were under water in this one, with one home flooded in Campbellsville
--May 25th Severe Weather--Thunderstorms packing straight-line winds of 70 mph took down trees and power lines in portions of Grayson, Breckinridge and northern Barren Counries
--March 9th Severe Weather--Strong winds ripped the roofs off barns in Metcalfe County
And now (drumroll please...where's David Letterman when we need him!), South-Central Kentucky's Top 10 Weather Events of 2006:
10. SLEEPY TROPICS: The much-ballyhooed tropical season is a relative bust, with NO tropical cyclones affecting South-Central Kentucky in any way this year.
9. THE HUNT FOR WARM OCTOBER: The early fall brings an early taste of winter to our area, with 6 mornings dawning with freezing or sub-freezing temps (most since 1988). But things would change in late November...
8. POST-THANKSGIVING INDIAN SUMMER: A spell of record-setting warmth settles into Kentucky in the final few days of November. Included in this spell are two mornings with record "high" low temperatures, and a record high on the afternoon of the 30th (76 degrees).
7. MOVIE STORE MICROBURST: A localized but VERY damaging wind event takes down a movie rental store in Campbellsville on the evening of May 18th. Winds from this thunderstorm are estimated to be over hurricane force. Thankfully, no one is seriously injured or killled.
6. LET IT SNOW: Bowling Green experiences its snowiest February since 1986, with a monthly total exceeding 8" at the airport. Though there are no major winter storms, snow events of 1-3" blanket South-Central Kentucky on three consecutive February weekends.
5. DECEMBER: IN LIKE A LION!: That distinction usually belongs to March, but not in 2006. A sharp cold front rolls through the area in the wee hours of Dec. 1st, with strong, non-thunderstorm damaging winds reported in several locations across the Commonwealth. This system also puts an abrupt end to the unseasonable late-November warmth, with readings tumbling into the 20s on the morning of the 2nd.
4. HORRIBLE NIGHT IN "HOPTOWN": A major outbreak of severe weather impacts much of the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday, April 2nd. Included in this outbreak are large tornado-producing "supercell" thunderstorms. One strong twister (an F3) touches down in Hopkinsville, damages or destroys over 200 homes and injures over two dozen people.
3. FLOODING ON FALL'S FIRST WEEKEND: A slow-moving storm system brings severe weather to far western Kentucky on the eve of the September 22nd, followed by extensive flooding/flash-flooding on the 23rd. Two-day rainfall totals of 4-8" are common, especially in the northern/western sections of the WBKO viewing area. Six people are killed from flooding-related deaths in central Kentucky, and two die on the Western KY Parkway when the car they ride in hydroplanes off the roadway. Hundreds of Kentuckians are evacuated due to high waters, and numerous roads are closed. It's the state's worst flooding since 1997.
2. "BLACK FRIDAY": Just as residents of Hopkinsville are picking up the pieces from the tornado of April 2nd, another major outbreak of severe weather strikes the region on April 7th. This one also produces multiple supercell thunderstorms with several tornadoes. One tornado, declared an F2, touches down in southeastern Barren County near Temple Hill. Over a dozen homes are destroyed, with another dozen sustaining heavy damage. This twister would carve a path into southern Metcalfe County before lifting near Summer Shade. Also on this day, an incredible hailstorm unloads on Horse Cave, doing millions of dollars in property damage. If that's not enough, this busy weather afternoon sees Gallatin, TN struck by a massive tornado, one of the most damaging in all the United States in 2006.
And the number one local event of 2006...
1. A NEW YEAR'S BASH (MOTHER NATURE STYLE): An unusuallly strong (and widespread) severe weather event for January welcomes residents of the Commonwealth to 2006. On January 2nd, Bowling Green basks in record warmth (the day's high: 74) just before a line of strong to severe thunderstorms barrels through around the lunch hour. The storms go on to produce several tornadoes across the area, making it the largest January outbreak in central Kentucky's history. Hardest hit are Elizabethtown, where one tornado does heavy damage on the city's north side, and Columbia, where two tornado touchdowns are reported. Twisters are also sighted in Larue County and Lincoln County near Stanford.
There you have it. Some of our area's most memorable (and maybe forgettable) meteorological episodes of the past year. What does 2007 hold? We'll soon find out together. Happy New Year!!
Shane
December Arctic "Smackdowns"! (from 12/14/06)
Thanks for dropping in!
On the subject of things "dropping", we're going to discuss times in December when temperatures tumbled to brutally cold readings seldom experienced in South-Central Kentucky. Now we're not just talking about your "run-of-the-mill here-one-day-gone-the-next" shots of arctic air, oh no. These are what I dub "arctic smackdowns". These are prolonged, record-shattering outbreaks of bitter cold air that hang around for days at a time. These are the kinds of outbreaks where it is so cold you just want to hibernate like a grizzly bear and not emerge from underneath the electric blanket or stray too far from the fireplace. These are the kinds of outbreaks where snow sometimes lingers on the ground for unusually long periods, sometimes for four, five, six days, or even longer. These are the kinds of outbreaks where it can be relatively mild one day, then so cold the next that it almost steals your breath away. These are "smackdowns" (all apologies to World Wrestling Entertainment :)
When digging back through the Bowling Green temperature archives for December, several years stand out as having some of the most brutal arctic invasions of all-time. One of those is 1962. That year, our own Chris Allen was a mere infant in Tennessee, no one in this country knew about the "Beatles" (speaking of "invasions"), and Gene Birk was impressing the young ladies with his moves to "The Twist". Weatherwise, that December started off mild, with highs almost reaching 70 degrees on the 1st (sounds kinda familiar to our current weather situation, huh?). But a trend toward much colder air took hold the next week, with afternoon highs over 20 degrees colder on the 12/6 (33 was that day's high) than those just two days prior. But the real brutally cold air arrived on the 11th. This bitter blast was accompanied by 3" of snow, followed by three consecutive nights with a low temperature at or below 0! Included in that stretch was a daytime high of 10 degrees on 12/12, and an overnight low of -8 the morning of 12/13 (a record for that date). Interestingly enough, this same winter featured one of the worst arctic "smackdowns" of all-time in January 1963 (more on that in a later post!).
Fast-forward now to 1983. Ronald Reagan was President of the United States, and yours truly was just a little whipper-snapper still sporting a full head of hair up the parkway in Daviess County, KY. December that year also began innocently enough, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s in the first few days. But a "step down" to cold weather took place around mid-month, as highs didn't crack the 40 degree mark for six straight days from the 15th through the 20th. Some light snow occured during that time frame, but no major winter storms. After a brief moderation on the 21st and 22nd, the bottom caved in! The Ohio Valley had its coldest Christmas ever, with a high of just 5 degrees on the Eve, and 10 degrees on Christmas Day. Overnight lows plunged below zero on the 24th and 25th as well. As mentioned in the last post, almost unbelievably, there was no snow on the ground in Christmas 1983. Had that been the case, it's likely temperatures that holiday (highs and lows) would have been EVEN COLDER! That was a different story six years later.
In December 1989, the first President Bush ruled the White House, the "wall" in Berlin had been taken down, and yours truly was still a young whipper-snapper, with spiked hair and--dare I say--a mullet (hey, it was the 80s!), still growing up in Daviess County, KY. This month kicked off with some mild days, including a high of 65 degrees on the 6th. After that, the temperature would not climb beyond the 40 degree mark in Bowling Green until two days after Christmas! This extended period of cold weather supported several rounds of snow, with one storm dumping almost 5" on the 8th. But the intense cold from the 20th through the Christmas holiday is what made this month memorable. Look at these numbers:
12/20/89: High: 25, Low: 7
12/21/89: High: 17, Low: -6
12/22/89: High: 1, Low: -14
12/23/89: High: 9, Low: -11
12/24/89: High: 20, Low: -6
12/25/89: High: 30, Low: 18
Shiver me timbers, now that's a "smackdown"!! Just looking at those readings sends chills down my spine. I should point out 12/22/89 is a dubious day in that two records were established: A record "low" high of 1 little-bitty degree, and a record low that morning of -14, the all-time lowest December temperature for Bowling Green. Yes, it can still get brutally cold in these "modern" times! And unlike 1983, 1" of snow was on the ground Christmas Day. In fact, snow lay on the ground a whopping 10 days during the latter half of December 1989. That's a rarity for our area.
Allright, it's time for this bear to go "hibernate". We'll relive the top 10 local weather moments of 2006 with the next post. Until then, take care!
SH
Just Like the Ones I Used to Know (from 12/6/06)
"I'm dreaming of a White Christmas
with every Christmas card I write..."--Irving Berlin
Okay, you "snow birds"! Can't you just hear Bing Crosby crooning that classic? Yes, December is here, and the time has come to examine our prospects for waking up to a mantle of white come Christmas morn'. If you're a native of South-Central Kentucky, you're well aware that a true "White Christmas" is a rare treat. But it was just two years ago that many in our area experienced the whitest Christmas on record. That's when a blockbuster winter storm dumped as much as a foot of snow on portions of Ohio, Hopkins, and Muhlenberg Counties just a few days prior to the holiday. But just what denotes an "official" White Christmas anyway?
By definition, a "White Christmas" is labeled as such when one of two pieces of criteria are met: Either at least 1" of snow falls on December 25th, OR at least 1" of snow is measured on the ground the morning of December 25th...meaning it does not have to snow on the holiday to make it official. It's that simple. For folks who reside near the Great Lakes or Upper Midwest, or in the high country of the intermountain west or northern Appalachian Mountain chain, seeing a "White Christmas" is simple. For those of us living in the Ohio Valley and points southward, history tells us seeing 1" of snow on Dec. 25th is, well, not simple! Click here for further proof.
Many years have seen air over South-Central Kentucky cold enough to produce wintry precipitation during the Christmas holiday. But it takes sufficient moisture combined with that cold air to yield significant snowfall. Remember Christmas 1983? It was bitterly cold, with Bowling Green's daytime high a mere 10 degrees on Christmas Day, which followed a morning low of -7. Santa Claus probably felt right at home down here! :) However, there was no snow cover in the area that day, even though it was our coldest Christmas of all time. But there were some years in which the stars aligned, so to speak, giving our area some memorable "White Christmases". Let's go through the decades (note: Official snowfall records for Bowling Green only date back to 1932):
1930s: Only one year out of this decade produced an official "White Christmas" for Bowling Green. The week from Christmas 1935 to New Years Day 1936 was a wintry one featuring two major snowstorms. The first of which dumped 4.5" on 12/25/35. Much of that snow still lay on the ground when a second storm arrived with another 8" of snow on 12/29/35. December 1935 still stands as our city's snowiest of all-time.
1940s: None. Flurries are reported on 12/25/43, but that's not enough to make the Christmas "white".
1950s: Still none. Not even our snowiest winter season of all-time (1959-60) gives us a White Christmas. In fact, Bowling Green's high temperature on 12/25/59 is a balmy 56 degrees.
1960s: At long last, the snow drought on Christmas Day comes to an end! On the heels of a "near miss" in 1961, when 1" of snow was measured on Christmas Eve but was gone by Christmas Day, 1962 delivers with 2" of snow on the ground for the holiday. The '60s would prove to be banner years for "White Christmas" lovers, with 6" of snow measured on 12/25/63, 3" on 12/25/66, and 3.4" on 12/25/69. In the case of 1969, the snow actually falls on the 25th.
1970s: A new drought is underway. Ironically, none of the infamously cold and snowy winters of the late '70s gives Bowling Green a "White Christmas".
1980s: The drought continues through some of the mildest--and wettest--Christmases on record. Our warmest of all-time occurs in 1982, with a high of 70 degrees and a low of just 60 on Christmas Day. Five years later, Bowling Green endures almost 3" of rain (2.96" to be exact, on 12/25/87). But just when it looked as if another decade would pass without snow on Christmas, along comes 1989. An extended period of bitter cold air in the days leading up to the holidays ensures our area of its first "White Christmas" in 20 years, with 1" of snow measured Christmas morning. Much of that snow lingered from a weathermaker that spread a general 1-3" on our area on 12/19/89.
1990s: The early part of this decade delivers more snow for the holidays. A close call happens in 1990, when 1" falls on the 24th but melts by the morning of the 25th. Then, two years later, Bowling Green receives its biggest Christmas Day snow since 1935, with 3.5" falling on the 12/25/92. Yet another "White Christmas" follows in 1993, with 1" falling that morning. Little did we know the rest of the years that comprised this decade would not come through with snow for Christmas.
2000s:A new drought of sorts is underway...emphasis on "of sorts" because those living in Bowling Green could make a case for a couple of years: 2000 and 2004. The days leading up to Christmas 2000 were quite cold, with many instances of light snow in the bunch. The "official" National Weather Service records state that only a "trace" of snow was measured here on 12/25/00. To this day, I argue it was closer to 1". Same goes for 2004 (the year of that aforementioned major winter storm). Even though Bowling Green only received sleet out of that system as folks to the northwest got in on the record snows, sleet counts as "snow" in the NWS record books. It remains my contention there was NO WAY that only a "trace" was on the ground here the morning of Christmas 2004 (you know that well if you're a native of the city and were sliding around those icy streets two days following the holiday!). But that's what the records show, which means Bowling Green has now gone "White Christmas"-less since '93. Bah humbug!
Now for the $64,000 question: Will this be the year our "White Christmas" drought meets its end? It remains to be seen, as even though milder air may lock into our region for awhile, there are signs colder air could make a comeback around Christmas. Of course, we'll keep you updated. Until then...
May your days be merry and bright
And may all your Christmases be white..."
Shane
Early Season "Freaks": The November Snows of 1950 and 1977 (from 11/29/06)
Hi and thanks for checking back in!
I love digging through archives to find interesting trends. One trend I found is that two of Bowling Green's most severe winters (1950-51 and 1977-78) featured unusually early season winter storms. You could argue both served as signs of times to come for their respective seasons, even though the atmospheric setups that produced the two events were radically different.
On November 24, 1950, what became known as the "Great Appalachian Storm" clocked much of the eastern U.S. in a manner similar to the "Superstorm" of March 1993. This historic snowfall occured when a deep area of low pressure moved up the spine of the Appalachians, drawing in lots of Atlantic moisture into a very cold air mass that resided over the Ohio Valley. The result was a generous dumping of snow to the tune of up to 57" for parts of West Virginia, and 3 feet in parts of Ohio! Although amounts locally were not nearly that impressive, significant accumulations were reported. Perhaps the bigger story with this one was the bitter cold air that poured into Kentucky in its wake. Some snow totals and record lows from the following morning (11/25/50) include:
Bowling Green: 2", Low: -7
Summer Shade (Metcalfe Co): 3.5", Low: -7
Scottsville (Allen Co): 5", Low: -6
Mammoth Cave (Edmonson Co): 5", Low: -8
Fast-forward now to November 27, 1977. Like the '50 storm, this one happened during a Thanksgiving weekend. But unlike the '50 storm, it was a warm front moving into the lower Ohio Valley that produced widespread accumulating snows. Although the snow this weathermaker brought didn't stay on the ground long (only 2 days in most cases), it no doubt made from some rough travel back from Grandma's house after the holiday. Some totals from this winter storm include:
Bowling Green: 3"
Nolin Lake Dam (Edmonson Co): 5"
Rochester (Butler Co): 5"
Hardinsburg (Breckinridge Co): 5.5"
Beaver Dam (Ohio Co): 6"
As mentioned, both these November snows have one thing in common: Each one proved to be harbingers of brutal times ahead for the winter seasons that followed. On February 1st, 1951, South-Central Kentucky experienced what still stands as its worst ice storm on record, with freezing rain accumulating up to 2" and massive power outages. That crippling storm was to be followed by record lows around -20 for Bowling Green and surrounding areas.
The period January 8th to March 1st, 1978 is also significant, as there was at least 1" of snow on the ground in Bowling Green each day. Included in that period was a major snowstorm on January 16th/17th, followed by blizzard conditions on January 26th. Our area also had its coldest February on record that season.
There's another early-season "freak" to add to this list. If you watch our newscasts frequently, you may recall Chris Allen (certainly no freak--haha) and myself mentioning about the November 1966 snow. This one was prehaps more amazing than the '50 and '77 events in that it happened so early in the month (on the 2nd!). It dropped 8" of snow on Bowling Green, with a foot--yes, a foot of the white stuff for places like Glasgow and Mammoth Cave! If you're wondering about the winter that followed, it really didn't bring much severe cold. However, it brought a 6" snow to Bowling Green on December 23, 1966. That snow assured us of a White Christmas!
That makes a perfect segue for next week's blog subject. We'll take a look back at all the mornings we woke up to mantles of white on Christmas Day here in South-Central Kentucky since snowfall records have been kept.
See you in December!
Shane
Winter 2006-2007 Outlook (from 11/23/06)
Allright folks, the time has come to look ahead to our upcoming winter season. I emphasize "look ahead" because, if you frequent this blog, you know that's usually not what I do here. But this post will combine a look at the past with a look into the future, with winter fast approaching. I'll give you NOAA's official outlook for the winter season, followed by my own take on it. I should let you know I'll be speaking a little "weatherese" with some technical terms as they relate to the winter patterns, so bear with me!
Before we dive into the atmospheric "players" for this upcoming season, let's first get our time frame established. Of course, winter begins around December 21st, according to the calendar. However, "meteorological" winter, a reference to the coldest time of the season for the Northern Hemisphere, kicks off December 1st (next week). That season ends on March 1st, with the official end of winter (per the calendar) over around March 21st. Now, if you've been in South-Central Kentucky for at least a few years, you're well aware that stranger things have happened well past March 21st in terms of late-season surprises (remember the freak April snow in '04?). But for this outlook, I'll only be focusing on the period Dec 1st through Mar 21st.
Here are the factors taken into consideration for this winter's outlook:
1. El Nino Yes, our old friend "El Nino" is back into the equation for some wintertime shenanigans. As mentioned in a previous post, El Nino refers to an abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean waters off the northwest coast of South America near Colombia. This year's episode falls in the category of a "weak to moderate" El Nino. It's being called that because the warmest waters are actually a good distance away from the South American coast. A stronger El Nino setup would have that warmest water closer to Colombia. Such was the case in the El Nino episodes of 1982-83 and again in the winter of 1997-98. Both seasons saw a very active, moisture-laden subtropical jet stream (the southern jet branch), but little involvement from the polar jet stream (the northern branch) in terms of transporting much arctic air. Hence, both those winters were very mild with snowfall well below average for South-Central Kentucky. However, just like no two snowflakes are alike, NO TWO EL NINOS ARE ALIKE, either! Our last El Nino episode (winter 2002-03) was considered "weak to moderate". A weaker El Nino tends to open the door more often for the polar jet to come diving out of Canada, giving us more cold air to work with in winter storms. As you may recall, the winter of '02-'03 was quite cold overall with snowfall above average for Bowling Green. The current setup draws many comparisons to that of four seasons ago. Things that make you go hmmm...
2. Oscillations I'll almost guarantee that, following the first broadscale snow/ice storm over the eastern U.S. this season, all fingers from "media types" will point toward El Nino. It always seems to happen that way! :) But, there are many other factors UNRELATED to El Nino that must be thrown into the winter mix...factors that you likely won't hear about from the general media. For example, positioning of strong high pressure centers originating from the Arctic or Siberia will have much to do with how much cold air makes it into the lower 48 this season. That is dictated NOT by El Nino, but by oscillations, or the shifting of semi-permanent pressure systems over areas of the globe. One oscillation known as the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will have a HUGE impact on upper level winds and what direction they decide to blow. Others like the PDO (Pacific-Decedal Oscillation) play a role in the amplitude of the jet stream, as this oscillation dictates whether or not ridges or troughs are in place out near the West Coast.
3. Snow Cover The depth and coverage of snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere also weighs heavily on winter forecasts for our area. If the snow pack covers more real estate and is deep, it makes a cold air mass even colder due to the "refridgeration" effect. If the polar jet drops south with that cold air into more areas with snow cover, there's less of a chance for that air mass to modify. Interestingly, there is above average snow cover to our north across Canada and the polar regions at the moment.
4. Other Factors Some items that are given a little but not as much weight as those previously mentioned include: Seasonal and regional climatology, recent upper air patterns, and good old-fashioned "gut" feeling.
Before we get into what I expect locally, click here for NOAA's final call for this season.
Okay, snow lovers, I know the literal translation of those maps may not be to your liking, but don't despair!! NOAA's forecast is based primarily on the climatology of past El Nino winters. So, I would take that forecast with a grain of salt.
Let's look at monthly averages for Bowling Green before we go into my outlook (Note: These numbers are based on 30-year climatological averages from 1971-2000). "Mean" refers to overall average temp for a month):
DECEMBER: Avg High: 47.4, Avg Low: 29.2, Mean Temp: 38.3, Snowfall: 0.9"
JANUARY: Avg High: 43.0, Avg. Low: 38.3, Mean Temp: 34.2, Snowfall: 4.1"
FEBRUARY: Avg High: 48.6, Avg Low: 28.6, Mean Temp: 38.6, Snowfall: 4.0"
MARCH: Avg High: 58.6, Avg Low: 36.9, Mean Temp: 47.8, Snowfall: 1.1"
One more note: This is NOT an official First Alert Storm Team forecast, it's merely my take on the upcoming season. Here it is:
DECEMBER Temps: Will Average 2-3 Degrees Above Monthly Mean Temp (38.3), with 1" of Snow (Near Normal)
JANUARY Temps: Will Average 2-3 Degrees Below Monthly Mean Temp (34.2), with 7.5" of Snow (About 3 1/2" Above Normal)
FEBRUARY Temps: WIll Average Near Monthly Mean Temp (38.6), with 3.5" of Snow (About 0.5" Below Normal)
MARCH Temps: Will Average 1-2 Degrees Above Monthly Mean Temp (47.8), with 1" of Snow (Near Normal)
CHANCES FOR A SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE: 40%
CHANCES FOR A 4"+ SNOW IN 24 HOURS: 60%
CHANCES FOR A 6"+ SNOW IN 24 HOURS: 30%
***SOME STATS/NOTES:***
--Our last occurance of 6" of snow from one storm was in January 1996.
--Our last occurance of sub-zero temperatures (not wind chill) was in January 2003.
--Bowling Green's Snowiest Winter: 1959-1960: 48"
--Bowling Green's Least Snowiest Winter: 1949-1950: Trace
There you have it. To sum it up, I think even though we may wind up a bit below average in terms of precip overall (as NOAA suggests), I think enough cold air and moisture will team up to give us a final season snow tally this is above average (likely near 12"). I believe the final total is likely higher for areas north and east of Bowling Green (closer to 15" for Campbellsville, Greensburg down to Russell Springs and Albany), and a bit lower for areas south and west (near 10" for Hopkinsville, Elkton, and northern middle Tennessee). You'll also notice my thinking in that January, unlike last which was our 6th warmest of all time, behaves more like January. I think we'll have more available arctic air to produce more wintry precip. Thus, January should be our snowiest month, rather than February, which was the case last winter. And, yes, I wouldn't rule out at least one significant ice storm that produces more than 1/4" of ice for at least part of the WBKO viewing area. I also believe we'll have some spells of very cold weather in December and again in February, though more periods of milder weather those two months will temper the cold(esp. in December).
One more interesting tidbit: The infamous winter of 1977-78 was an "El Nino" season. If you were around then, chances are you recall the bitter cold and frequent snows well. Our snowfall total that season was 31". I don't think this one will be that severe.
Comments? Do you agree or disagree with my outlook? Feel free to drop me a line at my e-mail address above. Of course, if you look back at this in March and find that things didn't verify, you have every right in the world to chide me :) If I'm wrong, hey, I'm wrong.
Let the games begin.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Shane
More Novembers to Remember
Hi there! We're keeping with our theme of "rough stuff" in November with this posting. It's interesting to note that some of the most memorable tornado outbreaks in recent years have happened in the fall rather than in spring.
South-Central Kentucky's weather during the late morning and early afternoon hours of November 9, 2000 was very active, to say the least. An organized line of thunderstorms featuring widespread straight-line winds raced through Bowling Green during the lunch hour. Wind gusts clocked at over 70mph downed numerous trees and power lines all over the city. Though Bowling Green dodged tornadic weather with this event, other locations weren't so lucky. Burkesville (Cumberland Co) was hard hit, as an F1 twister ripped the roofs of several homes as it cut a path through the community. Another tornado did similar damage near Horse Cave in Hart County. Other twisters were confirmed by the National Weather Service in Marion, Washington, and Woodford Counties to our northeast. No fatalities were reported with this episode, thankfully.
Fast-forward to Sunday, November 10, 2002, and what's now known as the "Veteran's Day Weekend Outbreak". This was one of the biggest, most broad-scale severe outbreaks ever to occur in the fall. It produced some 75 tornadoes and impacted 13 states, including the Commonwealth. The event was actually two-fold, with one round of severe thunderstorms pummeling the area during the pre-dawn hours that day. In that first round, an F1 twister touched down in the small community of New Roe (Allen Co), taking out a mobile home and damaging several other structures. Another round of intense storms developed late that Sunday afternoon, producing more tornadoes in Tennessee. Over 30 were killed in the Volunteer State, with a total of 36 fatalities from the outbreak overall. On a personal note, I recall that Sunday well, as it was one of the first major severe weather events I covered here at WBKO.
Last, but not least, is the severe weather episode of Tuesday, November 15, 2005. In the days leading up to this event, we had a good idea that some very favorable atmospheric conditions would be setting up over the lower Ohio Valley that afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center knew that, too, placing much of the western one-half of Kentucky under a HIGH RISK for severe weather that day. Mother Nature certainly didn't disappoint! Several tornadoes wreaked havoc over the WBKO viewing area that afternoon and evening. Significant damage took place in the Stowers community of Simpson Co, where an F2 was confirmed. F1 twisters touched down near Adairville in southern Logan County (this one literally tossed a mobile home onto Hwy. 100 and destroyed a barn) and in southern Warren County, where some farms in Woodburn took it on the chin. But there was one tornado in the viewing area that wa | | |
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