Pussywillows, Cattails, Dogwoods, Blackberries, and Linen Britches (Updated 4/28/08)

Pussywillows cattails soft winds and roses
Rainpools in the woodland water to my knees
Shivering quivering the warm breath of spring
Pussywillows cattails soft winds and roses

Ahh...nothing like the sounds of the season. Those sweet, refreshing words came from singer/songwriter Gordon Lightfoot (of "Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" fame). Some years, the transition from the grey, lifeless winter to the lush, green spring can be rather seemless for us in South-Central Kentucky. But in other years, there can be, well, some unwelcome surprises as the seasons change.

One of my former college professors and Kentucky's former state climatologist Glen Conner is very learned on our state's "folklore seasons". He says there are three late season "winters" we often must endure as a right of passage to the warmer seasons. Those include "dogwood winter", "blackberry winter", and "linen britches" or "linsey-woolsey britches winter". "Dogwood winter" refers to a cold snap that usually occurs in mid-April for the Ohio Valley while dogwood trees are in bloom. It's also known as "locust winter" by some folks upstate where dogwoods aren't as common. Either way, you could argue that we're past this one, as the cold snap that happened on the weekend of April 12th-13th probably fell into this category. You could also make the case that last year's hard freeze on Easter weekend could be considered an abnormally harsh "dogwood winter".

"Blackberry Winter" is the second of the late-season snaps that usually happens around the first of May when blackberries are in bloom. When I think of "blackberry winter", I often think of Derby weekend of May 1989. The place to be to watch "Sunday Silence" win the "Run for the Roses" that year was inside with the heaters on throughout the Commonwealth! The high temperature on 5/6/89 in Bowling Green: A mere 51 degrees. Even more notable was what fell from the sky over northern parts of Kentucky that day: Snow!! A dusting (0.2" to be exact) was measured at the Cincinnati-Northern KY International Airport. Ugh!!!

Last but not least, we have what's generally the least severe but perhaps least-liked of the bunch: "Linsey-Woolsey Britches Winter". In old days, this referred to the final time in the spring season where folks would be forced to pull back out the homespun linen wools. This season usually happens in late May. May 22, 2002 might qualify as a good example of a "modern day" Linsey-Woolsey moment, as the low temperature in Bowling Green as 35 degrees that day with some light frost reported.

One more note: The latest spring freeze for Bowling Green happened on May 4, 1976, when the official low was 32 degrees. You may not don the linen or wools, but storing the jacket away at the end of April can sometimes be premature in this part of the world!

Voicing rejoicing the wine cups do bring
Pussywillows cattails soft winds and roses

SH

We've Come a Long Way, Baby! (Updated 4/2/08)

April 3rd marks the 34th anniversary of the "Super Outbreak", the worst tornado event to ever strike the United States. For those that witnessed the destruction that afternoon and evening, the memories are still fresh as ever.

Last year, I recalled the stories of a couple of eastern Warren County families whose lives were turned upside down on that wicked Wednesday afternoon. This time, though, I thought I'd focus more on the changes in technology since April 3, 1974. for more.

Well, the stats are in for this past winter, and though it wasn't that cold or very snowy in this part of the world, the overall trend of warming winters came to an end with this one. CLICK HERE for a USA Today article discussing La Nina's role in temperatures and precip across the country this past season.

As forecasters we must ask ourselves, "Was this past season just a relative island in a continuing sea of warmth, or is it a sign of things to come?" I will tell you the current long-lasting La Nina harkens back to the early 70s...years that featured mainly mild winters and VERY active spring seasons for South-Central Kentucky. Once the La Nina episode faded in 1976, the bottom fell out in each of the three winters that followed. If history repeats itself, the 2010's could be MUCH colder than the current decade.

For now, enjoy Spring, and though the pattern may very well stay active, let's hope for some quiet time in which we can "stop and smell the roses"!

Happy Easter,
SH

The Weekend Snow and "Convective Banding" (Updated 3/9/08)

Easter may be two weeks away, but I could already hear the shouts of "Alleluiah!" upon waking up and glancing out the windows Saturday morning. Yes, a good snow FINALLY materialized for South-Central KY, and though it wasn't what I would consider to be a "blockbuster" for Bowling Green (5" was the city's official measurement), it was our biggest single-storm snowfall since March 19-20, 1996! Whether you like the white stuff or not, you had to agree we were long overdue. For some of our western and northern counties, however, I'd say it was a blockbuster. Totals of 8" of Elkton, 10" in Leitchfield and 11" at Rough River Lake classify as "epic" for Kentucky in this forecaster's book!!

I've been living here for almost a decade now and have been employed as a weather anchor at WBKO for the last seven. NEVER did I think I'd have to wait this long for such a decent snow! It always seemed as if we had an invisible snow sheild covering Warren County...almost like the shady, obligatory man in a Scooby Doo cartoon who stands outside the Haunted House and says "You can't enter here...go away!" Last week, I was reminiscing with Chris Allen about one particular snow event that affected the area in mid-January 2003. We had a pretty good feeling that significant snowfall was possible several days prior, and as I recall the night before, all signs pointed to amounts near 6" for Bowling Green. Our official forecast was for 3-6", thinking in this case the lower amounts would be to the north with higher amounts from Bowling Green southward to the Tennessee line. But alas, the low pressure system producing the snow took a jog about 60 miles south, and voila, Nashville gets paralyzed with 8" of snow....much of that coming between the morning drive and midday. Then there was the huge winter storm of December 2004 that delivered a white Christmas to just about everyone northwest of Bowling Green. But from here and points south and east, it was mainly a rain and sleet event. Curses! Foiled again! At long last, though, our time came on the morning of the 48th anniversary of Bowling Green's biggest snow ironically enough (the infamous two footer than began on March 8th and finished on March 9, 1960).

While the snow amounts forecast seemed to verify for most portions of the WBKO viewing area, a few folks were, I guess you might say, "disappointed" in what they received. It seems most of the disappointment was centered from about Cave City southwestward through eastern and southern Warren County and into Simpson County. These areas, for lack of a better way to describe it, seemed to be in "la-la land" Saturday morning when others to the east and west were picking up on heavier snows for longer periods. Why was that? Well, a lot of times with major snowstorms we'll experience what's known in the meteorological world as "convective banding" or "meso-banding". I saw this setting up on First Alert Doppler Radar Friday night as the event was unfolding. We mentioned areas of the darkest blue representing spots where snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour were possible. The heaviest snow bands - as we anticipated coming into the event - set up shop primarily over the western/northwestern portions of our coverage area (Todd and Logan Counties northward through Morgantown and Hartford and northeastward to Leitchfield, Clarkson, and Elizabethtown). Some of these convective bands literally sat over these areas for several hours with little movement...hence the large amounts. Lightning and thunder were also experienced...something VERY RARE for this area and the first time I'd witnessed it since 1994! Warren County for the most part was just east of the best convective banding, even though the western one-half of the county did receive a general 4-6". Amounts trailed off quite a bit just to the south and east, though, with Franklin only picking up 2". To the south, a similar story unfolded in Nashville, where most forecasters called for 3-6" though the airport (on the city's east end) only received 0.8". In these cases, the best banding simply did not establish itself for long. It's for that reason that - along with temperatures sometimes borderline both aloft and at the surface - forecasting these events AND getting the amounts to verify can be SO tricky! Often times computer models will give us a pretty good idea of where the heaviest snow may be, but they can only "broadbrush" the picture, thus making it difficult for any forecaster to nail down exact amounts for any one location.

As a general rule, it's our policy in the First Alert Storm Center that, when forecasting a potential snow event, we don't immerse ourselves in the numbers for possible accumulation until about 24 hours prior to the event. That's because a.) Big snows are rare in this part of the world, and b.) So much can change with the data and guidance prior to the storm's arrival, i.e. the track, timing, and temperatures involved. As mentioned before, we've seen those changes unfold so many times leading up to the fact! All in all, though, I'm pleased to say our forecast verified for most, and judging by the smiles on the faces of the young and the young-at-heart who made the trek to "Hospital Hill" in Bowling Green Saturday morning, I think most "snow birds" were fed quite well!

Thanks for reading,
Shane

All in the Family (Updated 2/29/08)

I discussed La Nina and its correlation with active severe weather seasons in the last post. But that's not the only thing La Nina usually means for Kentucky. There seems to be a relationship between La Nina patterns and late season snows for our area. Take for example a couple of years: 1974 (again) and 1989.

Records for Bowling Green show most of March 1974 to be mild. Not to mention, it followed the old adage to a tee: It came in like a lamb and out like a lion (a prelude to the Super Outbreak occured with tornadoes in the region on March 29th). Nestled in between, however, just a few days after the official start of spring, came a bitter blast of arctic air that brought record late-season cold to parts of the Midwest. This blast rolled into town and gave South-Central KY high temperatures in the 30s on the 24th! Along with that came a dose of light snow, affecting many northern parts of the WBKO viewing area. Nolin Lake Reservoir, Hodgenville, and Madisonville all reported 1" of snow that day. Mammoth Cave Park also recorded a nice dusting (0.3") from this likely- unwelcomed late season cold shot.

Fifteen years later, after another winter that had been primarily mild and snowless, fans of the white stuff had something to cheer about, at least for one day. With air only marginally cold enough but moisture plentiful, a swath of 2-6" of snow fell over southern parts of KY and northern/eastern parts of TN on February 27, 1989. Check out these totals: Scottsville: 6", Hopkinsville: 5.5", Jamestown: 3", Lake Cumberland: 3.4", and Bowling Green: 2". Proof that with winter, Yogi Berra was right: It ain't over til it's over!

Funny how this year--a La Nina season--seems to be in the family with other strong La Ninas before it. Often times, the abnormally cooler waters in the central Pacific--which have a huge impact on the middle of winter--tend to lessen their impact on North America late in the going. When that happens, those who wish to get out and plant flowers or till gardens can have another thing coming. Keep in mind we've had accumulating snowfall as late as April 18th!

Enjoy the warmer weekend, but remember: Spring hasn't really "sprung" yet!

SH

Not the Same but Similar (Updated 2/18/08)

La Nina and severe weather in the Ohio Valley...there seems to be a bond between the two entities. Much like the bond between Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy, or Daryl Hall and John Oates, or maybe even Ed McMahon and Johnny Carson. You get the idea. Just for review, La Nina is the abnormal cooling of the tropical Pacific waters that usually spells warm and wet weather for the Blue Grass state. But when that warm, moist air clashes with colder, drier air to the north, stronger-than-normal storm systems for mid-winter standards tend to be the result. The past tells us a La Nina pattern can be a recipe for trouble in this part of the world. Sure enough, history repeated itself on February 5th. The "Super Tuesday Outbreak" was one for the ages!

Now I won't rehash all the stats about that deadly night in this post (our links about that are on the weather page just below the forecast discussion), but I want to discuss how similar our current pattern is to another La Nina season: 1973-1974. Hmmm...1974. Something BIG happened that year, did it not? No, I'm not thinking about Richard Nixon and "Watergate" and "I am not a crook" and "Gerald Ford will be sworn in as president" and all that jazz. Sure, that was turbulent enough, but I'm thinking about the "Super Outbreak" of tornadoes that took place across the eastern U.S. from the afternoon of April 3rd into the early morning hours of April 4th. Those twisters were spawned from a deepening area of low pressure that moved from the Rocky Mountains into the Upper Midwest. CLICK HERE for official archived weather maps from Wednesday, April 3, 1974...select day 4 from the drop down list on the upper right. That weathermaker was part and parcel of the La Nina pattern the nation was locked into at the time. Interestingly, the winter leading up to that disastrous event was mainly warm and mainly wet (sound familiar?). Bowling Green saw no measurable snowfall in the winter of '73-'74 until February 8th, when 1" fell. It's worth noting that the 1" or less of snow in our area last week turned out to be the first measurable snowfall of the season for many. Now I don't know about you, but I cannot help but seeing some irony there.

The early '70s featured some very active weather in this region. If we turn the clocks back another three years we find what I refer to as the "Other Outbreak' on April 27, 1971, when multiple violent twisters resulted in numerous fatalities and damages in the millions across South-Central KY. This, too, happened in a "La Nina" year. CLICK HERE for weather maps from 4/27/71...this one is day 3 from the drop down list. In fact, La Nina conditions were consistent over the central Pacific waters from 1970 all the way into 1976.

Let's go back a bit further to 1965. Lo and behold, there was another memorable tornado episode known as the "Palm Sunday Outbreak". This one didn't have quite the impact on our immediate area as the those in '71 and '74, but it still ranks as one of the deadliest in U.S. history. The hardest hits states were Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. La Nina conditions were present that year, and this outbreak followed an unusually mild winter season for much of the East. CLICK HERE to look at that day's weather maps.

Fast-forward to January 22, 1999. The severe season that year really began in January, with Clarksville, TN witnessing a severe tornado. Other parts of the South were ravaged, too, including Arkansas. CLICK HERE to check out that day's weather maps.That winter season can be considered a close cousin to the one we're currently in, at least in my book. It gave us a roller-coaster ride in the temperature department, with cold spells short-lived and some record warmth in the 70s during January and February. Later that spring, the strongest tornado on record slammed into Moore, OK on May 3rd, with estimated winds of 318 mph!

Granted, this may not be the most in-depth study of La Nina's impact on severe weather in Kentucky. But I think it's undeniable that strong episodes of that climatic phenomenon play a role in producing more potent storm systems over the central and eastern United States that tend to be severe weather-producers for our region. I say this not to scare you, but just to make you realize that, if history is any indication, our weather pattern is likely to remain active well into spring. BE PREPARED AT ALL TIMES!!!

Shane

It's Not (That) Unusual (Updated 1/10/08)

In the wake of a couple of episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region this week, I thought I'd should take a moment to stress that IT'S NOT THAT UNUSUAL to have severe weather in January! In fact, we've had many infamous tornado outbreaks strike the Commonwealth in the dead of winter and NOT JUST IN RECENT YEARS!! Take a look at these examples:

January 18th-19th, 1929: Several twisters touched down across central Kentucky, two of which were fatal. The strongest of the bunch hit portions of Hardin and Larue Counties on the 18th, downing at home and four barns near Sonora. One person was killed and five were injured. Another tornado tore a path from Summersville to Campbellsville (Green to Taylor Cos.), killing two and injuring five along the way. Other tornadoes in this outbreak affected the Louisville area.

January 21, 1959: A killer tornado ripped through Grayson County, downing four houses in Neafus, and destroying 10 buildings on one farm. Three people were dead and five were injured in the wake of this storm.

January 24, 1964: No fatalities in this outbreak, but several twisters touched down in Grayson and Hardin Counties late that evening.

January 24, 1997: A little more recently (and if you're a Glasgow native you may recall this one), two tornadoes wreaked havoc on portions of Barren and Metcalfe Counties. The strongest touched down on the south side of Glasgow and did significant damage along KY 90.

January 2, 2006: Here's one I remember very well! Several twisters spun up early on this afternoon. Two of those found the ground in Adair County near Columbia, where one took out a mobile home and unroofed a house. Over in Lincoln County to the east, two people were injured by another tornado late that afternoon.

Now we wait and see if what happened in Park City Thursday is added to the above list.

**All the above data courtesy of the Louisville National Weather Service.**

SH

The Top Weather Events of '07 (Updated 12/28/07)

Should old weather happenings be forgot and never brought to mind? Ha! In my world, the answer is an emphatic NO!! They should be remembered--and ranked--for these were the events that helped characterize 2007. From now on when I think about '07, one word will come to mind: EXTREME. It truly was that, and not to mention unusual, in so many ways. Here are the nominees for the past year's most significant and memorable weather events (in no particular order):

Bowling Green's Hottest Month Ever (August)

Lack of Severe Weather in May (only one report in viewing area)

Oct. 18th Severe Weather Outbreak

Easter Weekend Snow/Hard Freeze

Our 3rd Warmest March of All-Time

First 90s in October Since 1963

The Drought

106 Degrees in August--Hottest Temp in Bowling Green Since July 1980

April 3rd Severe Weather Outbreak

KY's first tornado to be ranked on NOAA's new enhanced Fujita Scale (Todd Co. on March 1st)

1-3" of Snow on Third Weekend of February

Drought-busting record Oct. Rains

June 23rd Severe Outbreak (8 reports of hail/damaging winds in WBKO viewing area)

June 8th Severe Outbreak (7 reports of hail/damaging winds in WBKO viewing area)

I asked my colleagues, Chris Allen and Matt Stephens, to assist me in picking the year's top weather events. Now before I get into who placed what event in what number, I should stress that there is a good bit of subjectivity involved in the individual ratings. Think of two NFL referees making a call on a big play...one thinking "touchdown" while the other contends the player may have been "out of bounds". I don't know if that analogy applies best to this situation, but I think you get the idea :) We all did, however, base our rankings on what events we thought to be the most significant in terms of overall impact on our region. Any noteworthy all-time records also factored in. The year 2007 had plenty to choose from in both departments!

Chris' Picks

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

--Lack of Severe Weather in May

--Oct. 18th Severe Outbreak

--April 3rd Severe Outbreak

--Todd Co. Tornado (Mar. 1st)

CHRIS' TOP 10:

10. 1-3" of Snow 3rd Weekend of February

9. June 8th Severe Outbreak

8. June 23rd Severe Outbreak

7. Easter Weekend Snow/Hard Freeze

6. Drought-Busting/Record October Rains

5. 3rd Warmest March of All-Time

4. 1st 90s in October Since 1963

3. 106 Degrees in August--Hottest Day Since July 17, 1980

2. Record Hottest Month for Bowling Green (August)

and drumroll....

1. THE DROUGHT

Matt's Picks

HONORABLE MENTIONS

--BG's Hottest Month Ever (Honorable mention, Matt? What are you smokin', dude?!! Just kidding...)

--Lack of Severe Weather in May

--106 Degrees in August (Again Matt, what are you smokin'?!! Oh wait, I forgot, each man is entitled to his own opinion here.)

--Todd Co. Tornado of March 1st

MATT'S TOP 10:

10. June 8th Severe

9. June 23rd Severe

8. Easter Weekend Snow/Hard Freeze

7. 1-3" of Snow 3rd Weekend of February

6. April 3rd Severe

5. Oct. 18th Severe

4. 3rd Warmest March

3. First 90s in Oct Since '63

2. Drought-Busting/Record Oct. Rains

1. THE DROUGHT

And now for my take...

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

--Lack of Severe Weather in May

--Apr. 3rd Severe Outbreak

--Todd Co. Tornado on Mar. 1st

--June 8th Severe Outbreak

SHANE'S TOP 10:

10. June 23rd Severe Outbreak

9. 1-3" of Snow 3rd Weekend of February

8. Oct. 18th Severe

7. 3rd Warmest March All-Time

6. First 90s in October

5. Easter Weekend Hard Freeze/Snow

4. 106 Degrees in August--Hottest Day in 27 years

3. Drought-Busting Rains in October

2. Bowling Green's Hottest Month Ever (August)

And at numero uno (surprise, surprise)...

THE DROUGHT

So there you have it. We may not always agree on everything, but the choice for number one this year was a no-brainer. The drought was our worst in over 50 years...one that impacted so many in the Mid-South region, and continues to do so in the Deep South. I'm certain most folks in the agricultural community (except maybe a handful in aquaculture) hope we don't see the likes of the "Drought of '07" for a very long time to come!

Extreme drought, extreme heat, and some severe weather mixed in to boot. Bizzare year? At times, yes. Extreme year? YOU BETCHA!!!

All the best to you and yours in '08!

Shane

Not the Same Old Lang Syne (Updated 12/19/07)

You may not know it, but the music world lost a great--and I believe highly underrated--singer/songwriter this past Sunday. His name...Dan Fogelberg. He emerged from the trenches of street performances as a struggling folk artist in the early 70s to become a bonafide pop star later that decade. Between 1980 and 1984, you would have been hard-pressed to turn the radio onto a soft rock or adult contemporary station and not hear a Dan Fogelberg tune. Hits such as "Longer", "Heart Hotels", "Hard to Say", and several others received frequent play. But Fogelberg has several songs that stick out in my mind for various reasons.

And it's Run for the Roses
As Fast as You Can
Your Fate is Delivered
Your Moments at Hand...

The 1982 hit "Run for the Roses" is one of those that gives me chills when I hear it. Naturally, radio often revives this hit in May when the time rolls around for the Kentucky Derby. The opening verse strikes a chord with me: Born in the valley and raised in the trees of Western Kentucky... For a boy born and raised in the Blue Grass state, it's a tune that upon listening to it--much like "My Old Kentucky Home"--gives me a real sense of pride that I grew up here in the Commonwealth. And then there's this hit:

The Leader of the Band is Tired
And His Eyes Are Growing Old
But His Blood Runs Through My Instrument
And His Song is in My Soul...

When it comes to family and influences, I often refer to my late grandfather as the "leader of the band". He was a survivor of World War I, and lived just long enough to tell some dramatic tales of fighting for the red, white, and blue in the Argonne Forest of northern France in 1918. To paraphrase Fogelberg, my life has been a poor attempt to imitate him, yet he remains my hero.

But there's one more of Dan's most well known songs--perhaps THE most well known--that often receives airplay this time of year. "Same Old Lang Syne" tells the story of Fogelberg bumping into his old girlfriend for the first time in a long time at a supermarket during the holidays. He even goes so far as to describe the outside conditions: "The snow was falling Christmas Eve... He sings of how they grab some holiday "spirits" and proceed to catch up on each other's lives since they last met...discussing all the changes they had gone through...all the good times and the bad. But the last verses of this classic are perhaps the most poignant, when the two part company and head their separate ways once again:

Just for a Moment I Was Back at School
And Felt That Old Familiar Pain
And as I Turned to Make My Way Back Home
The Snow Turned into Rain...

I always loved the way he brought the story full circle at the end with the "snow" mention. But it's the melancholy conclusion to this song--complete with the bluesy saxophone instrumental as it fades out--that makes it memorable. "Same Old Lang Syne" has become one of those timeless tunes.

Our "rain" may have turned to "snow" on Sunday morning, but in a sense, it was the other way around. Fogelberg fought the good fight against prostate cancer for 3 1/2 years before succombing earlier this week. He may be gone, but not forgotten. But it's not the "same old lang syne".

This will be my last post until after the 25th, so I wish you and yours a "Merry Christmas"! Thanks for reading.

Shane

The Quake That Wasn't (Updated 12/10/07)

A few weeks back, I was conducting a First Alert Weather Class for some 4th graders at Dishman-McGinnis Elementary in Bowling Green. We were in the midst of a little Q & A with the students when one inquisitive youngster posed a question I don't hear often. She asked, "Is it possible for us to have a big earthquake in Kentucky and is there any way of knowing when it might happen?" Now, I'm no geologist, but in our line of work as weather forecasters, it's often assumed by kids and adults alike that seismology and meteorology go hand in hand. So naturally, I'll be thrown this "curve ball" on occasion, and every time it comes flying in my direction, I think of one man and one place. The man: The late scientist Dr. Iben Browning. The place: New Madrid, MO. Both were the center of attention in 1990. The hullabaloo that surrounded both aforementioned entities actually began one year earlier, though.

Let me take you back to September 1989. That's when Dr. Browning, a New Mexico native learned in the ways of bioengineering (though NOT a seismologist) made a bold prediction. He stated there was a 50-50 chance an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or greater would occur on the New Madrid fault near the Mississippi River on or about December 3, 1990. His reasoning? A certain amount of gravitational pull between the earth's crust and the moon along with other planets. This forecast got the media's attention, but the science world balked. Many claimed there was no real basis to back up Browning's theory. Others said he was merely "crying wolf" and that TV, radio, and print journalists were only contributing in over-hyping an event that wasn't even a sure bet. One thing I learned even before I got into this business: NEVER underestimate the power of the media! Perhaps the best example of that power was displayed in the reactions of state leaders, area businesses, and school systems leading up to 12/3/90, the date in which Browning feared "The Big One" would rattle the region.

When the supposed big day loomed, I was a sophomore at Owensboro Catholic High School, and when I think back to that fall, I can't help but snicker about it. I chuckle about hearing I would be out of school on December 2nd and 3rd. I laugh a bit when I recall my high school principal--just a week before the predicted quake--giving us the low-down over the intercom system on what happened at New Madrid, MO in 1811 and 1812. That's when not one, not two, but THREE MAJOR earthquakes of at least 7.9 magnitude or greater on the Richter Scale shook almost the entire eastern United States. My classmates and I hear him tell of the horror of those events...the Mississippi River running backwards, church bells ringing in Boston, parts of Ontario feeling the quakes, downtown New Madrid dropping 10 feet, etc, etc. He seemed genuinely concerned and obviously hoped we would be, too. Of course, many of us (myself included) merely saw those two days off as "play days", perhaps not realizing how serious a strong quake could be if it took place. I also smile a bit when I think about engineers who warned of the perils of being stuck on a bridge during the time of the shaking. At the time, I was a typical high schooler who thought, "Yeah, right. That will happen when pigs fly. What does that Browning guy know?"

Well, December 2, 1990 rolled around quickly, and guess what? I was glued to the television! I just couldn't take my eyes off CNN, where video of what had evolved into a media circus was commonplace throughout the day. Downtown New Madrid was a sea of news cars and satellite trucks. I'm sure that little SE Missouri town never believed it would receive so much attention! I recall a couple of seismologists being interviewed about a small tremor that took place near Cape Girardeau a few months prior, one barely felt by the area's residents but drummed up to no end by the media. Some of the city's residents took the threat seriously, scrapping up earthquake supply kits and battening down the hatches. Others went about things more nonchalantly, sort of taking a "what have we got to lose" attitude. In fact, one local restaurant was promoting an "earthquake burger" with a split down the middle of the hamburger bun! The day went by with no seismic activity along the fault. Now it's the 3rd. We wait, and wait, and wait, and wait. Nothing. No shaking, no quaking. Now, time for the backlash.

"Browning's Boo-boo" and "Iben Wrong" were popular statements by area residents chiding Dr. Browning for his "wrong" prediction. I must admit I hopped on the "Let's Make Fun of Him" bandwagon after those days went by. It was as if he practically made a Joe Namath-esque guarantee that it would happen but couldn't back it up. Sadly, Dr. Browning passed away in July 1991, a little over half a year after the quake that wasn't. At least the late scientist was given a tip-of-the-hat by new Madrid mayor Dick Phillips, who said at the time, "We owe him a debt of gratitude...In this particular case, thank God, his prediction didn't come to pass, but it made us realize that we had never made any kind of preparations for a natural disaster. We owe him for that."

Seventeen years have passed since the hubbub surrounding New Madrid took place. And yet, we still wait, and wait, and wait. For we know that the day will come when the sleeping giant that is the New Madrid fault wakes up again. It's had a way of warning us on a few occasions since those great quakes of the early 1800s (1895 and 1968 are examples), but those pale in comparison to the documented event of 1811 and 1812. As I told the yound girl at Dishman-McGinnis, what is certain: It WILL happen again. What is not certain: The exact date and time.

Are we ready?

SH

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK 2007-2008 (Updated 11/29/07)

Allright kiddos, it's that time again! Meteorological winter starts Saturday, December 1st, so I find it appropriate to unleash my outlook for the upcoming '07-'08 season one day before the magic date. It is amazing to think that as we enter into the season, we've gone from 90 degree temperatures in the second week of October to seeing readings struggle just to reach 40 degrees on Black Friday. That kind of turnaround may be giving some of you snow lovers hope that this could be the year we turn the tables with lots of wintry fun. After all, it's been five seasons since our last one with above average snowfall in Bowling Green. Unfortunately for fans of "real" winter, it's my belief that streak gets extended to six when this season's all said and done. I'll discuss the reasons why later. First, however, I think we should review what's "normal" for winters in Bowling Green before we dive into the meat and potatoes of the "pattern players" for this season and how they factor into my outlook. I must be true to the title of this blog and share some "history", amongst other items. Bear with me, as the "weather speak" will get technical at times!

NORMALS These numbers are based on 1971-2000 Climatological data specific to the Bowling Green Warren County Regional Airport. Technically winter lasts until around March 21st per the calendar, but I'll deal only with the months considered as "meteorological winter" here:

DECEMBER: Avg. Temp (Highs/Lows Combined): 38.3
Avg. Snowfall: 0.9"

JANUARY: Avg. Temp: 34.2
Avg. Snowfall: 4.1"

FEBRUARY: Avg. Temp: 38.6
Avg. Snowfall: 4.0"

It's been said that to understand the future we must learn from the past. That's why it's important to keep those stats in mind relative to the forecast!

PATTERN PLAYERS

1. LA NINA: This looks to be a MAJOR player in determining the character of South-Central Kentucky's winter this year. "La Nina" refers to abnormal cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters...something that began this past spring. It is the exact opposite of "El Nino", which happens when those same waters warm. The winter of 2006-'07 was an "El Nino" winter, one that started warm, then turned cold in late January and remained so through much of February. The one missing ingredient when the cold came back was moisture. We only picked up 4.7" of snow last season...NOT because there was no cold air to work with but because the upper pattern remained inactive since the predominant jet flow was northwesterly during the second half of the season (that dryness laid the groundwork for the extreme drought conditions over the summer, I might add). That flow usually gives us moisture-starved clipper systems that are not our biggest snowmakers. The subtropical jet is often a non-factor for us during "El Nino" seasons, and last year was certainly no exception. Not so with "La Nina"!

When La Nina conditions are present, the subtropical jet stream typically runs from near Hawaii northeastward into the West Coast of the mainland U.S. in/near northern California. It then normally runs east-northeastward into the north-central Plains, the Upper Midwest, and into New England. This upper air flow often promotes a warm, moist southwesterly flow for the Ohio and Tennesee Valley region. It's for thie reason that "La Nina" winters are often warm and wet for South-Central KY. Click here for a case in point from 1988-89:CLICK HERE. Notice the bullseye of green over Kentucky during the period January-March. It was also, for the most part, a mild winter with very little snow for Bowling Green. That's because the primary jet flow stayed well to our north, often keeping us on the warm side of storm systems. Yeah, I know...not what you want to hear if you're a fan of the white stuff.

Moderate to strong "La Nina" winters for North America include: 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99. A weak "La Nina" developed during the winter of 2005-06, just two seasons ago. What's interesting is that all aforementioned seasons yielded snowfall well below average for Bowling Green, along with extended spells of unseasonable warmth. You may recall that much of winter '05-'06 was unusually warm after a cold start in December (we even had severe weather Jan. 2nd), though the cold and some snow made a comeback in February when the La Nina pattern broke down. Official forecasts are keeping this particular La Nina event solid throughout the winter, though, and that should have a lot of bearing on our upcoming season. If there's one thing I can say with a great deal of confidence here: La Nina will ensure us of a MUCH more active pattern than that of last winter.

2. OSCILLATIONS/TELECONNECTIONS: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific-North American Oscillation have important roles in shaping up U.S. winters. The NAO is made up of two semi-permanent systems...one an upper low pressure over Greenland/Iceland and another an upper high pressure over the Azores in the East Atlantic. When these systems are planted in their usual spots, a positive NAO results. However, if the high over the Azores weakens and drifts eastward toward Africa and the low over Iceland backtracks westward toward the Canadian maritimes, a negative NAO develops. In a negative NAO, the jet over North America often takes a nosedive over the East Coast. That setup, while not necessarily the SOLE reason for extended cold in South-Central KY, certainly plays an important role. So does the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA), which refers to the occasional shifting of the Aleutian Low over the northern Pacific and an upper high over the West-Central Pacific. When the Aleutian Low is strong and positioned SW of the panhandle of Alaska, a positive PNA develops. This situation typically results in high pressure ridging and unseasonably warm air in the West, with colder air as the jet may carve a trof over the East. Combine a negative NAO with a positive PNA and you have the recipe for a big chill in this part of the country. However, getting that kind of setup for a prolonged period is easier said than done, and all signs point to that combination being a rare one this winter.

3. OTHER FACTORS Besides teleconnections and La Nina, there are other players on the team that will dictate how this season shakes out for us. Those include climatology (touched on earlier) as well as snow cover off to our north. Canada is quite cold as I type this, and there is a fair amount of the fluffy stuff covering the ground over the northern Rockies and Plains in late November. That's key, as snow cover tends to breed more cold air to the north (something we call the refridgeration effect). Northwest winds blowing over that COULD aid in getting our season off to a nippy start.

Now that we've made it through the reasoning, let's get into the outlook! Please remember that this forecast is my own and is NOT representative of official First Alert Storm Team forecasts posted here on-line or delivered on-air on WBKO ABC or FOX. Here goes...

DECEMBER: I envision this as likely being the coldest month of the winter season for our area. We may actually have more opportunities for seeing significant wintry weather this month than later in the season when it's more typical. The coldest part of December will likely be the first half, with warmer temperatures after the 15th. That, of course, is not music to the ears of those of you wishing for a White Christmas, as it has been 14 years since our last one in Bowling Green. Never say never, though. Avg. Temp (Highs/Lows Combined): 39.5 (One degree above climatological avg.), Snowfall: 2.3" (1.4" Above Average).

JANUARY: La Nina will really flex its muscle during the middle of this year, and around here, well...that's a snowman's worst nightmare. I harken back to January 1999, January 2002, and January 2006 when I think of how this one should pan out. In those aforementioned months, there was at least one day in which high temperatures topped out at or above 70 degrees in Bowling Green...ridiculous for mid-winter. Now that's not to say we won't have our cold shots - we always do in the dead of winter - but with a southwest wind flow and infrequent visits from the arctic jet, I see us having occasions where short sleeves and shorts may actually be acceptable attire. Though the pattern stays active - I see this month being soggy - the lack of arctic air will probably keep Bowling Green on the "rainy" side of most systems. By the same token, the high number of cloudy, rainy days may be the only thing that keeps this from being one of the top 5 warmest Januarys of all time for the area. One or two of system MAY produce significant snow or ice to parts of the WBKO viewing area in overrunning scenarios where cold air is still present. A footnote about January '02: I recall daffodils blooming on the campus of Western Kentucky University BEFORE February 1st!! I wouldn't be shocked if that happens again. Avg. Temp: 40 (Almost 6 degrees above average), Snowfall: 1.5" (2.6" Below Normal).

FEBRUARY: This has the POSSIBILITY of being the wild card of the next three months IF and ONLY IF there's a slight weakening of the La Nina late in the season. In Feb. 2006, we made up for the lack of snow in December and January by picking up accumulating snows on consecutive weekends. In fact, every weekend that February except the last one had Bowling Green picking up on significant snowfall. The breakdown of that season's weak La Nina was a big reason for this. No two winters are exactly alike, though, and La Nina is stronger this time out. Like January, though, I foresee a lot of warm spells with a couple of cold shots thrown in for good measure. Don't be shocked if this is one of those situations where winter makes a late season comeback toward the waning days of February into March...a month not included in my outlook. It's a leap year coming up, so we'll get that extra day at the end of February. Avg. Temp: 43.2 (4.6 degrees above normal), Snowfall 2.8".

One last note: I think we'll have a late-season surprise come mid-March, one that could dump around an inch of snow in Bowling Green to round out the season. Northern counties in our viewing area (a la Grayson, Hardin, Breckenridge, Ohio) will likely be on the colder side of more storms, so I'm thinking seasonal snowfall on the order of 10-12" is possible there. Closer to the Tennesee line, amounts will be much lower...on the order of 5" or less.

SUMMARY:

Winter 2007-'08 should go down as a mild but wet one for South-Central KY. Cold shots may come from time to time, but unseasonably warm weather will be frequent during the upcoming season. The snowiest month may wind up being December before the true face of this season shows itself. Snowfall should remain below normal this season for all of South-Central KY, though that's NOT to say we won't have our chances given the more active jet. The period from around Christmas to Valentine's Day looks warmer than average overall.

Thanks for reading, and let the fun begin!

SH

November Snows (Updated 11/19/07)

Hi there! Sorry it's been so long!

Sometimes when Old Man Winter knocks at our door prior to December, we may not want to answer. Nevertheless, he can come barreling through that door like Dennis the Menace does with his next-door neighbor Mr. Wilson. We're never immune to early visits from winter. With that in mind, I thought this would be a good time to take a look back at some of the most infamous early season snows to impact our area. The amounts of some of these--not to mention how early in the season they took place--may surprise you.

November 2, 1966: What has to rank as one the most shocking weather events ever in this part of the world unfolded as wet snow piled up in FEET over parts of central KY. Bowling Green recorded 8" of snow from this freak storm, but locales such as Mammoth Cave and Glasgow received anywhere from 11-13" of the white stuff! Just imagine all that heavy, gloppy snow caked onto the trees as the leaves were turning!

November 23, 1950: This snowfall was part and parcel of a severe cold blast that gripped much of the eastern United States for several days in late November 1950. A deep, slow-moving low pressure center that meandered over the Ohio Valley and northern Appalachians dumped about 2" of snow in Bowling Green, but the bigger story was the bitter cold air that followed, with subzero lows common in the Commonwealth two days following the snowstorm. The only other time Bowling Green saw temps dip below zero in November was way back in 1880. Brrr!!!

November 27, 1977: You have to go back 30 years to find the last time much of the area saw significant snow in November (this excludes the "Halloween" snow of 10/30/93). This system struck the region on Thanksgiving weekend, just in time for the Christmas shopping season. Snows of 3-5" were common over much of the WBKO viewing area...the heaviest November snow since '66 for a lot of folks. Few may have realized it at the time, but this snow served as a hint of what was to come for the winter of '77-'78: Frequent snows and PLENTY of cold air!

Allright, now that you've had the appetizer, the main course arrives on this blog next week, and that's my outlook for Winter 2007-08. I'll say this much for now: This season may not be our coldest ever, but if you like snow, don't hang your head. We'll discuss that more right here after the holiday weekend. Have an enjoyable--and safe--Thanksgiving!

Shane

Careful What You Wish For! (Updated 10/24/07)

Chances are you're familiar with the old phrase "be careful what you wish for, you just might get it". Never did that saying ring more true than it did for Kentucky residents during late 1936 and early 1937, particularly when it came to the weather. Perhaps your parents or grandparents--heck, maybe even YOU--recall the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. America was in the midst of the Great Depression, and these were years filled with despair for the state's agricultural community. Some of the lowest corn, soybean, and alfalfa yields ever reported in the Commonwealth's history came in the '30s. In fact, alfalfa yields this year were reportedly the state's lowest since 1936. Hmmm...1936. interesting, especially since that year ranks near the top of the hottest and driest summers in Kentucky (just as 2007).

As was the case here just a few weeks ago, folks were praying for rain during the scorching summer of '36 and were no doubt appreciative of every drop that fell. Finally, by the end of 1936, the drought-busting moisture arrived. Trouble is, it kept coming, and coming...and coming.

After a November in 1936 that was drier than average for Bowling Green, the pattern 180 began in December, when 6.51" was recorded. Then came the terrible floods of January 1937. Rainfall totals by the end of that month exceeded 15" in many locales across Kentucky, with Earlington (Hopkins Co) establishing the state's all-time record for the wettest January (22.97"). These record rains resulted in record flooding on the Ohio and Green Rivers, as well as many of their tributaries. Many cities were inundated with water for several weeks, many homes were either swept away or left uninhabitable, and many persons drowned in the high waters. A couple of people who recall that dramatic flip from "too dry" to "too wet" have told me the floods may have had more long-lasting damage for many areas than the drought that preceded it.

Now, I say this not to scare you, but it does make me wonder if history might repeat itself. After all, we're coming out of a summer that ranks right up there with 1936 in terms of the intensity of heat and drought. Not to mention, La Nina conditions (where waters in the central Pacific Ocean are colder than normal) are developing, and the thinking amongst many in the meteorological community is that warmer and wetter than average conditions will prevail in the winter ahead for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. If that materializes, than at the very least, one may draw parallels to the '36-'37 pattern change. One hopes, however, the turnaround is not so extreme.

Thanks for stopping by,
Shane

Just for Kicks (Updated 9/21/07)

We're entering the fall season with a monkey still riding our backs: Drought! As I post this, Bowling Green has recorded a measly 22.26" of rain on the year. If the year ended now, it would be the driest EVER here!! The all time driest is 1930, with a mere 26.33" of rain. With three whole months left in 2007, it seems likely 1930's record will stand, but in this year of extremes one can never be too sure!

Turning to the subject of late season heat, if you think it's unusual to be dealing with 90 degree temps in the latter half of September, you're exactly right. After combing through data each year from 1971 thru 2006, I found that the average date of the last 90+ temp for Bowling Green was September 9th. It's interesting to note that in some years, we were completely finished with 90 degree heat by the middle of August! For example, our last 90+ day in 1982 came VERY early (August 4th). On the flip side of the coin, there were other years in which summer just didn't want to let go. The years 1971, 1986, and 1998 are prime examples (last 90+ day: September 30th).

One more note before I run: We have not seen 90 degree weather spill over into October since 1963.

Thanks for checking in!

SH

It's the Time of the Season (Updated 9/5/07)

Okay, this may seem impossible to believe since the days are still quite hot, but fall is just around the corner. That, of course, means winter is not too far behind, which, in turn, means it's time for Kentucky's famous forecasters to come out of their shells. No, I'm not talking about my fellow First Alert Storm Team members! I'm talking about folks like Mr. Dick Frymire, the veteran prognosticater from Breckinridge County now in his 42nd year of predicting weather conditions for the upcoming winter season. Just for review (we mentioned his forecast technique in a post sometime late last year), Frymire has a secret formula in which he studies tree leaves, bark, and other interior readings of his Japanese maple tree. He combines that with past winter weather data to come up with exact dates for snow events and bitter cold temperatures many months ahead. When it comes to the Commonwealth, Frymire is to winter as Colonel Sanders is to chicken.

Allright, enough with the old S.A.T. analogies. Here's Frymire's forecast for 2007-08:

Oct. 7th: Light frost

Oct. 18th: Killing frost

Nov. 11th: Flurries

Nov. 21st: 1st tracking snow

Nov. 28th: tracking snow

Dec. 9th: 1" snow

Dec. 15th: 1" snow

Dec. 21st: 1" snow

Dec. 27th: 1" snow

Jan. 3rd: Very cold thru Feb. 9

Jan. 13th: 3" snow

Jan. 17th: Coldest Day, 10 below zero

Jan. 23rd: 4" snow

Jan. 28th: 2" snow

Feb. 3rd: 1" snow

Feb. 11th: 1" snow

Feb. 18th: sleet and hazardous driving

Feb. 24th: 4" snow

Feb. 28th: first robin (8am CT)

Mar. 7th: flurries

Mar. 16th: 1" snow

Mar. 27th: WIll be 67 degrees

Apr. 8th: Last snow (flurries)

Frymire adds that if a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11am on any of the first 10 days of January, winter will be worse than anticipated. At any rate, the above forecast would be a dream season for Bowling Green, that is if you enjoy snow. Those events Frymire suggests total up to 20" of the white stuff, which would be double our seasonal average. His forecast, by the way, takes in everything from Pikeville to Paducah, as well as most of Southern Indiana.

Another nugget of note: The Farmers' Almanac predicts a colder-than-normal winter with above normal precip for Kentucky. We shall see...

SH

Crown 'Em Kings! (Updated 8/17/07)

It's already safe to call the Heat Wave of '07 "historic", as we've shattered two record highs and working on our hottest August EVER as I post this. But this hot spell is spurring some good questions, like this one from John in Summer Shade (Metcalfe Co.):

What is the record for the number of 90 and 100 degree days in a row?

Well John, this may surprise you (it surprised me), but the summer of 1921, while not featuring a lot of extreme heat, gave Bowling Green 57 straight days of 90 degree readings! The streak began on June 10th and ended mercifully on August 6th, when the high was a mere 88 degrees.

As for consecutive 100 degree days, you must go WAAAY back to 1901 (a drought year mentioned in my last post--no coincidence that drought years often feature some oppressively hot temperatures!). The period July 19th through July 28th was quite possibly the most unbearable stretch of weather ever for South-Central KY: That's 8 straight days of 100+ temps! Just think, central air was only a dream back then. Crown that one "King of the Scorchers", and crown 1921 "King of the Prolonged Heat"! '

Thanks for reading!

SH

C'mon Tropics! Work Your Magic! (Updated 8/15/07)

Allright, the latter half of August lies ahead, and unless you're living in Mammoth Cave, you know we have a HUGE hole to dig out of with that yearly rainfall deficit. Occasionally we might get some temporary relief in the form of scattered thunderstorms...either the air mass variety (a la the popcorn late afternoon development) or whatever a typically weak cold front wrings out this time of year. But of course, more is needed on a broader scale to provide any real relief...the kind of relief a system tropical in origin can deliver. They have worked some magic through the years.

The year 1901 had similarities to the present: Plenty dry and plenty hot! Cases in point: July 1901 featured scorching high temperatures of 108 degrees in Bowling Green on the 10th and again on the 21st. As for rain, only a paltry 0.17" fell the entire month! In fact, no rain fell here at all from June 27th through July 18th. But the pattern changed in August, and the remnants of an unnamed hurricane (they weren't named until the early 1950s) sent abundant mositure back to South-Central KY. Each day from 8/13/01 to 8/19/01 shows meaurable rain fell in Bowling Green. Our monthly rain total that August: 7.34", which is impressive considering only 11.85" fell from January 1st through June 6th of that year!

Tropical storms and hurricanes have also been factors in other summers, whether we really needed their moisture or not. In 2002, moderate drought conditions had developed over South-Central KY when the remnants of two cyclones rolled through. The first was Isidore in late September, closely followed by Lili in early October. Isidore was the more prolific rainmaker of the bunch, but rainfall from both was enough to virtually wipe out the yearly deficit to that point. Similar conditions existed in 2005 before the ghost of Katrina barreled through in the waning days of August. Rainfall accumulated 3-11" over the region, effectively ending a drought that had been tetering on severe.

Some other tropical systems that left their calling card on the Blue Grass include: Audrey (June 1957), Betsy (Sept 1965), Camille (Aug 1969), Becky (July 1970), Bob (July 1979), Frederic (Sept 1979), Erin (Aug 1995), Opal (Oct 1995), Frances (Sept 2004--Mainly Eastern KY), Ivan (Sept 2004--Mainly Eastern KY), Arlene (June 2005), and Dennis (July 2005). Of these, Frederic brought the most rain to Bowling Green (6" on 9/13/79).

Funny how tropical cyclones can act as deamons AND friends. For more info on past tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, CLICK HERE.

SH

You Have Questions, I Got Answers! (Updated 8/9/07)

Our ongoing heat wave has sparked some very good questions from you, our viewers:

Q: We were wondering how the winter was following the last summer we had 100 degree weather. The Farmer's Almanac says we will have a bad winter this year. Is it true?--Anonymous

A: Well, I don't wish to open a can of worms in this space about the Farmer's Almanac (my father-in-law swears by it!). However, I typically give the book a glance before the start of the year just for kicks and grins. Stats don't lie, though, and that's what I looked at when it came to tackling this question. As it turns out, there really is no golden rule that says the winter after an extremely hot summer will always be "harsh". For example, the last time we experienced 100 degree weather prior to this year was in the summer of 1999, but the winter that followed was pretty wimpy. Our biggest snowfall during the entire '99'-'00 winter season was a mere 1.3" in late January. On the other side of the coin, though, is the winter of 1983-84, one that came on the heels of a summer that gave us two seperate streaks of 100+ temps in July and again in August. Lots of area residents recall the sub-zero readings that Christmas, which was followed by frequent snows and more bitter cold in January and Febraury 1984. Moral of the story: There really seems to be no clear-cut correlation between summer heat and bitter cold (or lack thereof) the following winter.

Q: Could you tell me how long it has been since we have seen this many consecutive days of temperatures in the 90s (11 straight days of 90+ readings)?--Sent by H. Dexter

A: I was a bit surprised I didn't have to dig back in the archives too far to find the last time we had such a long heat wave here. It was actually just two summers ago in which we endured 17 straight days of 90+ temps for aftenroon highs. That stretch started July 31, 2005 and ended August 16, 2005. In all likelihood, our current stretch of 90+ weather will surpass the one for a couple of seasons back.

Thanks for writing in folks!

SH

Dubious Streaks (Updated 8/7/07)

Well, we did it. For the first time since September 1999, the mercury cracked the century mark in Bowling Green Tuesday afternoon. If you're like most people, you probably wish that eight-year streak did NOT have to end. However, with the strong possibility of more triple-digit heat on tap this week, I thought it would be interesting to look back in time and see when dubiously long stretches of intense heat found occured in our part of the world during August:

1930 As if July wasn't hot enough in this "Dust Bowl" year, August made South-Central KY sweat it out again. The period 8/2 through 8/8 saw a LOT of red on the thermometer, with 100+ temps recorded each day (7 straight days). Bowling Green's all-time hottest August temperature happened on the last day of that streak (110 degrees).

1918 Mention 1918, and the brutal winter that began the year may come to some minds. However, the summer that followed gave our area some scorching readings, especially during August. Had it not been for a 98 degree high on 8/7, Bowling Green would have experienced 8 straight days of 100+ degree weather from 8/4 through 8/11 this month. Just think: Central air was just a dream back then!

1936 We're back into the Dust Bowl years again, and the arrid environment over the Commonwealth produced many record high temperatures in 1936 that still stand today. Two stretches of 100+ readings occured during this month here...the first from 8/16 through 8/21 (6 straight days) and 8/25 through 8/28 (4 straight days). A footnote to this heat wave: No rain fell in Bowling Green from August 11th through September 1st that year.

It appears a weak cold front slipping into the area Friday may be just enough to put the clamps on a ridiculously long 100+ streak like those mentioned above. That being said, if we make it three straight 100 degree days this week, it would be the first time that's happened in almost a quarter century (August 20th-22nd, 1983).

Take it easy this week!

SH

Shake and Bake (Updated 7/16/07)

From searing heat to the earth moving under our shoes, July 1980 had some memorable moments. Some in our area can recall two days pretty well: July 16th and July 27th.

The heat wave of 1980 was one of the worst in the memories of many South-Central KY natives since the Dust Bowl years. Consider this: Bowling Green hasn't experienced a 100 degree day in eight years now. But in July 1980, hitting the century mark was a common occurance. In fact, it happened EIGHT TIMES that month in Bowling Green! The heat reached its climax in mid-month, with the 15th and 16th being two of the hottest days ever for our area. Record highs still stand in Bowling Green for those two days (105 on the 15th, 107 on the 16th). That 107 was the city's hottest temperature since 1936! Unfortunately, no records exist for heat indices from 1980, but one could surmise it was likely well into the 110s on the afternoon of the 16th. What a SCORCHER!!! That's the "bake" part of this post...now for the "shake"...

On July 27, 1980, residents of Bath County Kentucky (and many across the rest of the Commonwealth for that matter) felt the earth beneath them move a good bit. Perhaps the bark was worse than the bite, but a 5.1 quake occured on this day in Sharpsburg, KY, causing $3 million in damage. The tremor was felt in 15 states and as far north as Ontario, Canada. This was actually the strongest quake ever recorded in the Blue Grass state (the massive quakes of 1811 and 1812 had epicenters in Missouri). Thankfully, no major injuries came from this one.

Shake and bake...and we "didn't" help. It was all nature that cooked it up!

SH

Wicked Winds (Updated 7/4/07)

Well, summer has arrived, and it's the time of year we think about lazy, hazy, crazy days of splashing in the pool and sipping on ice-cold lemonade. It's also the time of year in which we generally ease out of the heart of severe weather season. But it doesn't always happen that way. Remember the summer of 2004? It featured some of the coolest July and August temperatures we had ever experienced, but we payed a dear price for that comfortable weather. Perhaps the biggest price tags were tallied up in two of the most expansive severe weather episodes to ever strike South-Central KY. These events, occuring in July, were a mere eight days apart...quite unsettling to be certain. If there can be such a thing as twins in the world of weather, these storm events might qualify.

July 5, 2004: The day after Independence Day featured a line of gusty thunderstorms--one that evolved into what is known as a "derecho", or a long-lived windstorm traveling over several hundred miles--racing eastwqard from Missouri through southern Illinois and into western and central parts of Kentucky. This line advanced into the WBKO viewing area around 1:00 that afternoon...finally exiting our eastern counties around 5pm. In that time frame, wind gusts of over hurricane force wreaked havoc with area homes and businesses, knocking out power, stripping shingles off roofs and carports, and taking down many tall trees. In Bowling Green, a peak gust of 79mph was recorded at the weather station atop the Environmental Science and Technology Building around mid-afternoon. All told, there were 26 reports of severe weather across our viewing area that afternoon.

July 13, 2004: Just as we were cleaning up from the previous week's storms, another "derecho" event rolled in. This one, however, came from a v