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FIRST ALERT - Sunday winter weather brings impacts for some

Saturday will have low-to-no impacts from any rain/snow that develops to our west and southwest
Published: Jan. 15, 2022 at 10:40 AM CST
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BOWLING GREEN, Ky. (WBKO) - A complex winter storm has moved into the region and has brought headaches for forecasters with a wide range of variability and uncertainty at hand. However, given the latest data and weather model trends, we break down the up-to-date forecast.

We have a system that is bringing winter weather to the region with some impacts as well as uncertainties in south central Kentucky! For Saturday, much of the day will be dry with variably cloudy skies. We can’t rule out stray rain/snow showers possible, especially to the west and southwest. If anything accumulates from this, it will be less than a dusting as grounds will be mild and the snow will be accompanied with rain, which will help in melting some snow. High temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s with breezy easterly winds.

Saturday night will have mostly cloudy skies and overnight lows near freezing (upper 20s and low 30s). After midnight, expect an increase in coverage with rain/snow shower activity. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix, but impacts appear to be minimal. Nevertheless, if you are traveling Saturday night into early Sunday morning, be cautious with potential slick spots.

Sunday will have impacts for some in south central Kentucky - which is why we have declared a First Alert Weather Day. This is specifically for central, southern and eastern portions of the WBKO viewing area as travel could be hazardous at the peak of the event. Sunday morning will have a blend of precipitation - with rain/snow showers likely along with possible freezing rain and sleet possible within the moisture. Towards midday and early afternoon, the moisture will begin to transition to a snow/sleet mix, which will still create slick roads/sidewalks. By Sunday evening, the moisture will move towards the east as we dry out and cool down Sunday night.

Before we discuss amounts, we have to emphasize that we still have uncertainty with this forecast - specifically with where a moderate band of snow may develop on midday/early afternoon Sunday. Current forecast and blend of models insist this may be over the Green River Lake/Lake Cumberland/Dale Hollow Lake area, however some models are still having a difficult time with this. This will also be determined by the track of the low as it travels from our south towards the northeast on Sunday. Note that areas along and just east of I-65 are an area to look out for with snow totals. This moderate band we are discussing has the potential to bring “boom or bust” snowfall - meaning that some spots could see a few inches of snow and less than 20 miles away could see absolutely nothing. This has really made our snowfall forecast challenging.

Note that some snow could be limited due to sleet mixing with the snow. As of 10 a.m. Saturday, our forecast total snow accumulations are the following:

  • TRACE to 1″ of snow can be expected for Breckenridge, Butler, northern Christian, western Grayson, northern Hardin, Hopkins, northern Logan, McLean, Muhlenberg, Ohio, northern Todd and northwestern Warren counties.
  • 1″ to 3″ of snow/sleet can be expected for western Allen, western Barren, southern Christian, Edmonson, eastern Grayson, northern Green, southern Hardin, Hart, Larue, southern Logan, Simpson, southern Todd, and central and eastern Warren counties.
  • 3″ to 5″ of snow/sleet with locally higher amounts possible can be expected for Adair, central and western Allen, central and eastern Barren, Clinton, Cumberland, southern Green, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, Taylor counties in Kentucky and Clay, Macon, Robertson and Sumner counties in Tennessee.
The current snowfall forecast from the WBKO First Alert Weather Team as of Saturday morning for...
The current snowfall forecast from the WBKO First Alert Weather Team as of Saturday morning for south central Kentucky.(WBKO)

Despite some of the uncertainties with the system on Sunday, we are much more certain that it will be colder. Sunday, colder air moves in along with breezy northerly winds. Highs Sunday will only be in the low-to-mid 30s along with variably cloudy skies. Drier air moves in by Sunday night and into Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Monday), with morning lows in the teens and low 20s. The holiday will be cold with mostly cloudy skies and only in the mid 30s with a slight chance at snow flurries or light snow showers possible. Things get warmer quickly going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs back in the 40s with isolated rain showers returning by Wednesday before colder air returns by Thursday with highs back in the 30s!

Bowling Green 3 day forecast:

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Stray rain/snow mix possible. Breezy and colder. High 41. Low 31. Winds E at 14 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers likely. Breezy and cold. High 36. Low 22. Winds N at 16 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Stray snow showers possible. Breezy and cold. High 37. Low 25. Winds W at 14 mph.

Saturday’s Climate Info for Bowling Green:

Normal High: 46

Normal Low: 28

Record High Today: 72 (2020)

Record Low Today: -3 (1893, 1964)

Sunrise: 6:58 a.m.

Sunset: 4:53 p.m.

Health & Allergies:

Air Quality: Moderate (Ozone Count: 10 / Small Particulate Matter: 62)

Mold Count: Low (1177 - Mold Spore Count)

Friday’s Climate Info for Bowling Green:

Yesterday’s High: 52

Yesterday’s Low: 28

Yesterday’s Precip: 0.00″

Monthly Precip: 4.69″ (+3.06″)

Yearly Precip: 4.69″ (+3.06″)

Yesterday’s Snowfall: 0.0″

Monthly Snowfall: 6.3″

Seasonal Snowfall: 6.3″

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